- 56% of all SWFX market positions are short
- Pending commands are bullish for a fifth consecutive day
- By closing the spot below 1.1376 (monthly PP; 20-day SMA) on Friday, the next week's outlook will shift much lower
- Daily technical indicators are undecided today, after the advised to buy EUR/USD 24 hours ago
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: German CPI (Apr) and Prelim GDP (Q1); French Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1); Italian Prelim GDP (Q1); Euro zone Flash GDP (Q1); ECB Vice-President Constancio Speaks; US Retail Sales (Apr), PPI (Apr) and University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Confidence Index (May); FOMC Member Williams Speaks
The Euro zone industrial production declined sharply for the second month in a row in March, suggesting that the currency bloc's economic recovery is likely to remain modest despite a stronger start to the year. According to Eurostat, industrial output dropped 0.8% from February, and was just 0.2% higher than in March 2015. The fall was more than the 0.2% drop expected in markets and raises the possibility that the estimate for first-quarter GDP growth will be trimmed in a revision due later today. The Euro zone economy picked up steam in the first three months of the year, growing twice as rapidly as it did in the final quarter of 2015. Economists said the poor showing over the past couple of months is further evidence that the Euro zone is facing a softer economic outlook due to a number of factors, including uncertainty over the state of the global economic recovery, stemming in particular from the slowdown in China. Meanwhile, consumer prices in the Euro zone's second largest economy, France, posted another month of deterioration in April measured on an annual basis. The cost of living in France decreased 0.2% in April compared to the same period a year ago. In March, the gauge booked a 0.1% decrease.
New Zealand first-quarter retail sales volumes rose at the slowest pace for three quarters, against economist expectations. According to Statistics New Zealand, the volume of retail sales climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the first quarter, up from the three months through December. That fell short of economists forecast for a 1% gain. Retail sales volumes for the December quarter were revised lower to 1.1% from 1.2%. Core retail volumes, which strip out the more volatile vehicle-related industries, advanced 1% in the March quarter. Electronic goods sales surged 3.8%, while clothing, footwear, and accessories sales increased 1.7%. The steep rise in sales under these categories suggest the strength of the New Zealand Dollar is making imported goods more attractive to consumers, given that the country imports most of its electronics and apparel. Offsetting these gains was a 3.8% decrease in specialized food retailing, and a small drop in home and garden related sales. Nevertheless, the lift in retail spending last quarter suggests the upbeat tone of consumer sentiment in New Zealand amid weak inflationary settings and an environment of record-low interest rates. Last month the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold after trimming the Official Cash Rate to a record-low 2.25% in March.
Upcoming fundamentals: Busy day ahead in both Europe and US
Economic calendar is full of different data releases throughout May 13. Data flow will kick off with Germany's preliminary GDP numbers for the first quarter of this year and inflation figures for April. However, this data is expected to be published by the time this report is released. French non-farm payrolls for the first quarter are due at 6:45 GMT. Employment in the Euro zone's second largest economy is assumed to grow by 0.2% in the three months through March, at the pace similar to Q4 2015. Meanwhile, Italian GDP data is out at 8:00 GMT, followed by the Euro zone Flash Q1 GDP at 9:00 GMT. At 11:00 GMT the Vice-President of the European Central Bank Vitor Constancio will talk in Madrid. US statistics will include retail sales and producer prices for April, followed by May's preliminary consumer sentiment index.
EUR/USD erases gains, returns to monthly PP
The bears have completely controlled the market on Thursday. They eliminated all gains that were accumulated over Wednesday and pushed the cross back towards the monthly pivot and 20-day SMA at 1.1376. Consolidation under here will shift the risks considerably to the downside and the focus will consequently turn to the weekly S1 at 1.1320, the next nearest support line. We would allow for shallow dips down to the 55-day SMA, which will offer bid at 1.1263. Meanwhile, daily technical indicators are no longer backing the bullish case.Daily chart
It seems that the EUR/USD pair was provided with a downside momentum at 1.1450 on Wednesday, where it met the 200-hour SMA. Now the simple moving average line is starting to move to the south, which is going to put additional pressure on the Euro. The key aim for the bears is placed at 1.13, namely the March-April uptrend line. Long-term weakness it set to target the 1.1215 area (April low).
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment is 56% negative on the Euro
At the same time, sentiment of both OANDA and SAXO Bank marketplaces is remaining bearish with respect to the researched currency pair. However, we are still able to observe some improvement in the bullish sector. OANDA clients are less than 56% negative today (57% yesterday), while about 66% (69% on May 12) of SAXO Bank positions stay short.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Dukascopy Community members are bearish on this week's perspectives of EUR/USD
Almost eight out of ten Dukascopy traders are suggesting the common European currency will diminish against the US Dollar this week, as they have provided a forecast to sell this currency pair. The vast part of price expectations is placed in the range between 1.12 and 1.15; however, some extremely positive estimates from some Community members naturally pushed the average projection for May 13 as high as 1.18.
Among traders, pisakjanos assumes the pair will see no trend over the period. He says that "taking into account Technical Analysis, mainly 4H chart, I am expecting a neutral development." Meantime, Jignesh has provided a clear bearish explanation of the case, as he foresees EUR/USD lower: "The weekly candle on the instrument is showing a strong bearish signal. The US Dollar index, at the same time, is sitting against some significant support, marking the lows of 2015. I am expecting further bullishness in the USD this week, though the long-term bullish trend of EUR/USD is yet to confirm a long term reversal."