- Today only 52% of all SWFX market positions are short
- Pending commands are moderately positive on the observed currency pair (54%)
- 20-day SMA offers the nearest daily support at 1.1372, as nearby resistance rests as high as 1.1468/75
- Daily technical studies are no longer indicating to the upside
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: FOMC Member Dudley Speaks; US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) and Wholesales Inventories (Mar)
German factory orders increased more than expected in March due to strong foreign demand especially from countries outside the Euro zone, in a sign that a robust start to the year for Europe's number one economy may extend into the second quarter. According to the Federal Statistical Office, new orders in manufacturing climbed 1.9% in March compared to the previous month. It also revised February's decrease to a decline of 0.8% over January, compared to the 1.2% drop initially reported. While domestic orders slipped by 1.2%, foreign demand rose 4.3%, with orders from Euro zone countries edging up 1.1% and bookings from countries outside the currency bloc soaring by 6.2%. For the whole first quarter, industrial orders climbed 0.5%, with bookings from abroad increasing by 2.0% and domestic orders falling by 1.3%. The surprisingly strong March figure suggests that industrial output is likely to pick up in the coming months after making a solid start to the year. Leading economic institutes said the German economy probably grew by around 0.6% on the quarter in the January-March period, twice as much as in the fourth quarter. Separately, sentiment in the Euro zone improved marginally in May, but expectations remained subdued suggesting stimulus from the ECB is failing to calm concerns about global growth. The Sentix index, tracking morale among investors and analysts in the Euro zone, ticked up to 6.2 from 5.7 in April.
British house prices declined more steeply than expected in April after the introduction of a new tax on the purchase of rental properties, and the market might start to cool, mortgage lender Halifax said. Average values decreased 0.8% from March, reducing the annual increase to 7.8% from about 11%. On a less-volatile quarterly basis, prices climbed 1.5% from the previous three-month period. Finance minister George Osborne announced in November that landlords acquiring buy-to-let properties, as well as people buying second homes, would pay a new 3% surcharge from April 1 in an attempt to support first-time buyers, who have struggled to cope with the precipitous pace of house price growth. A record 165,400 UK properties were sold in March ahead of the tax changes, which was 11% more than the previous high in January 2007, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Last week, Osborne said that house prices could take a "significant hit" if Britons vote to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23. Halifax said the average house price in the UK was 212,321 pounds. Halifax expects house prices to continue moderating throughout the rest of this year.
Upcoming fundamentals: Fed's Dudley speaks in Zurich
New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will talk at 7:15 GMT in Zurich, Switzerland. He will participate in a panel discussion about the international monetary system. Other data from the European session is expected to be released by the time this report is published, including German and French industrial production for March, as well as Germany's trade balance statistics for the same month. As for the US, the JOLTS Job Openings are due at 14:00 GMT. This is going to be the most vital data release, as of Tuesday. March job openings are estimated to tumble to the smallest level since October of the last year and reach 5.4 million on the annualized basis.
EUR/USD little changed within correction phase
The European currency continues to diminish amid speculations the US Federal Reserve is going to proceed with policy tightening. The pair is clearly moving in the direction of the monthly pivot point at 1.1346, as the only intermediate demand is the 20-day SMA at 1.1371. Further weakness is highly likely, but EUR/USD is additionally going to face the two-month uptrend near the aforementioned monthly pivot. While at first this support may limit bearish pressure, the mid-term risks remain skewed to the south. Moreover, aggregate daily technical indicators are no longer giving signals to buy the Euro.Daily chart
Based on the one-hour time frame, the outlook for the pair is becoming much more pessimistic. This is because the bears were successful in consolidating EUR/USD under the 200-hour moving average line, currently at 1.1436. Initial dips are possible in the direction of 1.1285 where the sell-off is ready to meet the two-month uptrend. Extra demand is provided by 1.1215, particularly the April low.
Hourly chart
Sentiment continues to gain ground
62% of OANDA clients are betting the EUR/USD currency pair will slump in value, while SAXO Bank traders are maintaining the negative view on the matter in 66.37% of all cases.