- More than 60% of SWFX traders are short on EUR vs USD
- Pending orders are mixed, depending on the range from present exchange rate of EUR/USD
- As bulls show they are capable of eroding intraday losses, the mid-term bias is positive and focus is on the 1.15 mark
- Daily technical indicators are still mostly bullish
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: ECB Executive Board Member Praet Speaks; ECB Vice-President Constancio Speaks; Spanish Industrial Production (Feb); ECB Executive Board Member Coeure Speaks; ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts; ECB President Draghi Speaks; US Unemployment Claims (Apr 2); Fed Chair Yellen Speaks; FOMC Member George Speaks
The private sector in the Euro bloc expanded less than expected in March, while retail sales surprised to the upside, rising for the fourth consecutive months in February. The Euro zone's Markit composite PMI, which tracks both the manufacturing and services sectors, climbed to 53.1, up from 53.0 in February. Services PMI increased to 53.1 in March, up from 53.3 recorded previously, while manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.6 in the reported month. At the same time, retail sales in the Euro zone increased 0.2% in February on a monthly basis, following the 0.4% gain in January. On an annual basis, retail sales advanced 2.4% during the reported month, after an 2.0% rise in the previous month, and versus the forecast of a 1.9% pick up. The Euro zone's economic performance continued to be fragile as the currency bloc's GDP grew 0.3% in the final three months of 2015, the same pace as in the July to September period. For all of 2015, GDP in the Euro area was up by 1.6% year-on-year. A separate report showed, German factory orders declined significantly in February. Measured on a monthly basis, factory orders decreased 1.2%, following January's 0.1% drop. On an annual basis, the gauge increased by 0.5%, missing expectations of 2.2% growth, while the previous month's 1.1% increase was also revised down to 0.4%.
The largest increase in migration in a century has helped support New Zealand's economic growth, but has also boosted the labour force, keeping a lid on wage inflation, Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said. Slack in New Zealand's labour market has been the main factor to the RBNZ's decision to loosen monetary policy. In March the RBNZ cut the OCR to a record-low 2.25% in bid to spur inflation, which was at a more than 15-year low in the December quarter. Bascand said recent weak consumer inflation was largely due to falls in commodity prices and the strong New Zealand Dollar. Bascand also noted that the higher productivity of the economy from rapid growth in the labour force also explains some of the remaining weakness in inflation. Annual inflation was just 0.1% in 2015 and is predicted to have climbed to just 0.4% in the three months ended March 31. The March CPI data is due for release on April 18 and will help markets assess whether the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate on April 28 or hold off until June 9. There is a 55% probability that the bank will lower the OCR to 2% this month, and a 45% likelihood it will remain at 2.25%. New Zealand has been experiencing record high levels of immigration over the last few years, as the nation's economy has been relatively strong. While the growing population has boosted demand for goods and services, it also adds to supply in the labour market, which Bascand says can have an "ambiguous" impact on inflation.
Upcoming fundamentals: ECB meeting minutes and several officials' speeches
Every year the European Central Bank is organising a conference in Frankfurt, Germany called "ECB and Its Watchers". This year the event is taking place for a seventeenth consecutive time. There are many speeches expected from members of the Executive Board (EB) of the ECB. Importance of this even is very high due to economic and monetary sphere of discussion at the conference. The first person to speak at 6:30 GMT is Peter Praet, the EB member. He will debate about instruments that central banks can use to bring inflation back to targets nowadays. Another EB member Benoit Coeure will talk about monetary policy at 8:30 GMT. In the meantime, the Vice-President of the ECB Vitor Constancio will present the central bank's annual report 2015 at the European Parliament at 7:00 GMT, while President Mario Draghi is due to give a speech about economic and financial conditions in Europe in Lisbon, Portugal at 14:00 GMT.
EUR/USD silent after Fed news
With mixed signals coming from the Federal Reserve, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade sideways on Wednesday. Intraday losses were extending down to the weekly pivot point at 1.1326, but the bulls returned the pair back to the 1.14 zone. Therefore, we have got four consecutive days with changes of less than 20 pips. The medium-term primary objective for the longs is still represented by the October peak and weekly R1 at 1.15. Alongside, the second testing of the weekly PP must be successful in order to affirm any serious bearish intentions.Daily chart
Bearish valley has not been deep yesterday, judging from the 1H chart for EUR/USD. By midday GMT the bulls started to regain strength and pushed the spot up by almost 100 pips, thereby safeguarding the current narrowing trading range of the pair between the 200-hour SMA (1.1327) and the September 2015 high at 1.1459. A surge above the latter should imminently expose the October 2015 high just under the 1.15 mark, while a drop below the moving average will likely have much more substantial negative consequences for the Euro.
Hourly chart
Sentiment at 8-week low, orders mixed
While the SWFX marketplace is now performing a setback in terms of bullish positioning, both OANDA and SAXO Bank long traders are slowly gaining ground. Despite that, the bias remains negative, as 65% and 72% of OANDA and SAXO Bank traders are currently expecting a selloff, respectively.