- SWFX sentiment is bearish in 56% of all cases, as it is back down from 57% yesterday
- Bears failed to preserved majority of pending orders; commands are back to be about 52% long
- Key bearish target is now 38.2% retracement at 1.1145; success to put 50% retracement (1.1084) at risk
- Aggregate daily technical studies are bullish and only RSI indicator assumes EUR/USD is still overbought
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Italian Retail Sales (Jan); ECB TLTRO Programme Results; FOMC Member Bullard Speaks; US Durable Goods Orders (Feb) and Unemployment Claims (Mar 19)
New Zealand trade surplus expanded more than expected in February as the export of a large drilling platform boosted overall exports. Nevertheless, the broader picture shows that New Zealand's trade remains weak amid low global dairy prices. The trade surplus rose from a revised NZ$13 million in January to NZ$339 million last month, the highest in nine months, according to Statistics New Zealand. Analysts, however, had predicted a modest $57 million surplus. Exports jumped 9.3% to NZ$4.25 billion in February, led by the shipment of a large drilling platform. Excluding the drilling platform, overall exports rose only 2.5% last month. Exports of milk powder, butter and cheese, New Zealand's largest export product group, surged 9.2% for the month. A sharp decline in global dairy prices over the last two years has eroded New Zealand's export takings and slowed economic growth from an annual rate of around 3.5% in 2014 to around 2.5% last year. New Zealand's GDP grew 0.9% in the fourth quarter, matching the pace in the previous three months, Statistics New Zealand reported. At the same time, imports rose 2.8% to $3.9 billion, with consumption goods and intermediate goods rising in value, up 12% and 0.6% respectively, but capital goods declining 3.8%. New Zealand's trade deficit contracted from $3.5 billion in the year ended January 2016 to $3.3 billion in the 12 months ended February.
German business confidence strengthened for the first time in four months, in a sign that domestic demand is shielding German companies from sluggish global growth. The Ifo institute's business climate index climbed to 106.7 in March, up from 105.7 in the preceding month. German businesses have increased their dependence on domestic demand as a China-driven downturn in emerging markets curtails exports. At the same time, the ZEW Center for European Research in Mannheim reported its index of investor expectations, which aims to predict economic developments in the coming six months, surged to 4.3 in March from 1 in the previous month. The gauge rebounded from a 16-month low after market turmoil calmed and the European Central Bank launched fresh monetary stimulus. However, a separate report showed German manufacturing increased at the slowest pace in 16 months in March. Markit's manufacturing PMI declined to 50.4 from 50.5 in February, a sign that the Euro zone's powerhouse is feeling pressure of weakening global demand. The Bundesbank said that Europe's largest economy will probably maintain its "solid rate of expansion" this quarter, but there may be a slowdown in the next three months.
Upcoming fundamentals: Fed's Bullard to speak again after yesterday's interview
Thursday is going to be the last day before a prolonged holiday weekend, as we are awaiting a portion of important fundamentals from both the Euro area and US. Italian retail sales for January are first up at 10:00 GMT. Fifteen minutes later the European Central Bank will report on lending to banks in the single currency area through its TLTRO programme. In the meantime, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard will again take the stage on Thursday, by speaking in New York at 12:15 GMT. Considering one fact that he has made very hawkish comments earlier on Wednesday and another fact that he is an FOMC's voting member in 2016, his speech is highly likely to attract attention among global investors.
EUR/USD's short-term target remains 1.1145
EUR/USD eased for a fourth consecutive working day on Wednesday, but scope of losses remains insignificant. We are still waiting for a testing of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this month's earlier uptrend at 1.1145, which is backed by the 20-day SMA nine pips from below. Within the triangle pattern the long-term goal of the bears is 1.09 where they are going to meet the lower bound of it. On the other hand, aggregate daily indicators maintain a bullish bias, while the 55-day SMA will today cross the 200-day SMA to the upside and will indicate to potentially improving conditions for the Euro.Daily chart
The pair is currently trading just under the 200-hour SMA in the one-hour chart. However, the two-month downtrend at 1.1140 remains intact for the moment. A slump below here will imply extra selloff down to 1.0850 where the bears are going to contact with two January-March uptrend lines. The bullish case is not completely ruled out either, but within the best scenario EUR/USD should come back above the 200-hour SMA as soon as possible during the next 24 hours.
Hourly chart
Pending orders swing from gains to losses as sentiment holds stable
About 60% of all OANDA positions on the EUR/USD cross are betting the common European currency is going to retreat versus the Buck, no change for a third day in a row. As for SAXO Bank, here the shorts' advantage tends to remain much wider at 64% (67% yesterday) against the 36% (33%) share for the bullish side.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Dukascopy market participants are much more bearish on the Euro this week
At the moment of writing, we could see bulls trying to refresh the recent high. Traders, however, does not believe the pair will continue its appreciation, as only 37.5% of votes are bullish, while consensus forecast stands at 1.12. The overall market sentiment is bearish (62.5%), while trader rokasltu supports this forecast and believes that "EUR/USD took upward direction after FOMC statement, but faced resistance above 1.13. In my opinion, as monetary policy is quite clear at the moment, the EUR/USD's movements might be limited for a while. I expect rate to go downward a little during this week."
More on the negative side of traders' opinions, Jignesh assumes that "the FED caused the USD to nose dive once again, but a common characteristic of the Central Bank is to leak tidbits of information after the fact that conflict information contained in the original press conference. We may see individual members expressing different views, and a bit of a pull back in the pair early in the week, however, with Non Farm payrolls next week, dips in the pair should be supported."