- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 65% to sell
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.0586
- Upcoming Events: US Preliminary GDP; US CB Consumer Confidence
New orders for US-made capital goods advanced more than expected in January due to strong demand for passenger airplanes and new bookings for fighter planes and related military equipment. According to the Commerce Department, total durable goods orders spiked 1.8% in the past month compared with a downwardly revised 0.8% reading registered in December. The main driver for the jump was a significant increase in orders for transportation goods which surged 6.0% in January. Orders excluding aircraft fell 0.2%, missing expectations for a 0.5% rise on the month. Moreover, there were notable decreases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components as well as computers and electronic products. In the meantime, non-defense capital goods orders went down 0.4%, following an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in December, while machinery orders soared 0.5%, giving a 4.3% annual gain which is likely to heighten confidence in manufacturing outlook.
Overall, strong durable goods report followed recent growth in consumer spending and home sales as the Greenback stabilized and oil prices resumed growing. In addition, the Trump administration plans to cut corporate taxes and diminish regulations are set to help businesses, though surrounding uncertainty might prevent proceeding with investments in the near term.
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Upcoming events: US GDP in focus
The main event on Tuesday will be the release of the US Preliminary GDP, which is set to be published at 13:30 GMT. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team on the live webinar. In addition, later in the day at 15:00 GMT the CB Consumer Confidence index will be published. However, it is most likely not going to affect the financial markets.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD positioned to regain losses
Daily Chart: The common European currency continued to appreciate against the US Dollar during the early hours of Tuesday's trading session, and the currency exchange rate was positioned to continue to do so. The rate faced no resistance up to the level of 1.0617, where the 20-day SMA was located at. In addition, the SMA is unlikely going to stop a surge, and the pair will reach for the weekly R1, which is located at 1.0630. If the surge occurs, the Euro might regain the losses, which it suffered against the buck on February 20.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that during Monday's fluctuations the currency exchange rate managed to reach the weekly R1, which is located at 1.0630. However, the rate bounced off from that resistance level and retreated back to the lower trend line of the medium term ascending channel pattern.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX sentiment unchanged
Traders have not changed their open position proportions, as 52% of open positions are long on Tuesday. Meanwhile, 65% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders have not changed their bullish view on the pair, as 54.19% of trader open positions are long at the marketplace, compared to 54.26% previously. Alternatively, SAXO bank clients are bearish on the pair, as 51.39% of the bank's clients are shorting the pair, compared to 51.24% on Monday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 in April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between January 28 and February 28 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 by the end of May. In general, 51% (+4%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days, and 29% (+2%) see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 12% (-5%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months. © Dukascopy Bank SA