- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 60% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at the 1.0549 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will fall
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Italian Retail Sales; US Goods Trade Balance; US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories; US Flash Services PMI
German business sentiment remained unchanged in November, a private survey revealed on Thursday. The Munich-based Ifo economic institute reported on Thursday that its Business Climate Index came in at 110.4 in the reported month, while September's reading was unchanged at 110.4 in November, after the preceding month's reading was revised down to 110.4 from 110.5. Market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 110.6 points. The November figure suggests that executives remain positive about the country's economic growth, despite the uncertainties hanging over Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump's presidency. Back in October, the Index hit its highest level in more than two and a half years. In the meantime, the Current Assessment Index jumped to 115.6 in November from 115.1 points registered in the prior month, surpassing the 115.0 market forecast. The Business Expectations Index, which tracks sentiment in the next six months, declined to 105.5 during the reported period from 105.9 in October, falling behind analysts' expectations for 106.0. As a result, the Euro rose slightly against the US Dollar, trading at 1.0557 from 1.0556 ahead of the release, but fell against the Sterling, trading at 0.8493 from 0.8494 ahead of the data.
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose markedly last month, driven by higher demand for machinery and other equipment, official figures revealed on Wednesday. Overall, new orders for capital goods jumped 4.8% in October, according to the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 1.2%. The September figure was revised down from -0.1% to -0.3%. Demand for transportation equipment jumped 12% during the reported month, the largest gain since October 2015. Back in September, new orders for transportation equipment climbed 0.4%. Excluding orders tied to transportation, core durable goods orders increased 1.0%, following September's downwardly revised gain of 0.1% and surpassing the 0.2% rise market forecast. The US economy is set to expand at a 3.6% annual pace in the Q3, after growing 2.9% in the previous quarter. Separately, the Department of Labor reported on Wednesday the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 251,000 in the week ending November 18, up from the prior week's 233,000, whereas analysts expected a milder rise to 241,000.
Upcoming fundamentals: White noise releases on Friday
During Friday's trading session there are scheduled three macroeconomic data releases, which in the opinion of some market participants can affect the EUR/USD currency exchange rate. However, history has shown that these data releases can easily be labeled as white noise, which means that they do not affect the markets at all. From the side of the EU it will be the Italian Retail Sales at 10:00 GMT. From the other side of the Atlantic US Goods Trade Balance and US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories will be released at 13:30 GMT. Afterwards, at 14:45 GMT US Flash Services PMI will be available.
EUR/USD in a rebound on Friday morning
Daily Chart: The common European currency appreciated on Friday morning against the Greenback, as the pair jumped above the 1.0550 level and aimed for the next resistance. The next resistance level is located at 1.0632, where the monthly S2 is located at. However, it might also occur that the currency exchange rate stops the rebound and begins another attempt to move through the combined support level of the 2015 low levels at 1.0520. Such a hypothesis is also supported by the daily aggregate technical indicators, which forecast a fall for today's trading session.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that there is a very short term ascending channel pattern on the EUR/USD currency exchange rate. Moreover, the rate recently bent the hourly charts upper Bollinger band and jumped above the 55 and 100-hour SMAs, which means that the rate will most likely once more attempt a break through the monthly S2. However, it is highly unlikely that the monthly S2 will be broken.
Hourly chart
Bullish traders remain in majority
SWFX traders remain bullish, as 56% of open positions were long on Friday. In the meantime, pending commands were bearish, as 60% of trader set up orders were to sell.
OANDA traders remain bullish, as 64.06% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Friday, compared to 65.12% long positions on Thursday. Meanwhile, SAXO Bank clients have decreased their bullish outlook, as 54.90% open positions are long, compared to 58.48% during the previous trading session.