- 54% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Pending orders at 56% long
- Gold opened Friday's session at 1215.71
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: FOMC member speeches
US consumer prices see the biggest increase in six months in October amid higher gasoline and rent costs. According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index advanced 0.4% last month, following September's gain of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, consumer prices grew 1.6% in October, the largest annual increase since October 2014, up from the preceding month's 1.5%. Both readings came in line with analysts' expectations. Nevertheless, the so-called core CPI, which excludes prices for volatile items such as energy and food, rose 0.1% in the reported month, unchanged from September, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 0.2%. Year-over-year, core consumer prices fell to 2.1% in October, following the prior month's 2.2% gain. Higher inflation as well as the strong labor market are likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rates at its next meeting in December. The Central bank increased its key overnight interest rate in December 2015 for the first time since the global financial crisis. The Labor Department said gasoline prices surged 7.0%, up from September's 5.8%, whereas food prices remained unchanged. Within components of the core CPI, rents rose 0.4%, while medical care costs were unchanged. The price of prescription drugs rose 0.2%.
US retail sales posted a better than expected increase last month, suggesting economic strength and increasing chances for a December interest rate hike. The US Department of Commerce said on Tuesday retail sales climbed 0.8% on a monthly basis in October, following September's upwardly revised gain of 0.5% and surpassing the 0.5% increase forecast. Year-over-year, retail sales grew 4.3% last month. Excluding volatile items such as motor vehicles and parts, retail sales advanced 0.8% in October, whereas economists expected them to increase just 0.5%. Meanwhile, the preceding month's reading was revised up to 0.7% from the originally reported rise of 0.5%. The October stronger than expected retail sales supported the view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next policy meeting on December 13-14. The last time the Fed increased its key rate was December 2015, and kept its steady since then because of low inflation rates. Back in the Q3, the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.9% and it is set to grow 3.1% in the Q4, according to the latest economic growth forecasts released by the Atlanta Fed. As a result, the US Dollar jumped markedly against the Euro, with the EUR/USD pair declining to $1.0733 from $1.0759 ahead of the release.
Upcoming fundamentals: FOMC member speeches
Volatility could be induced into markets from the Euro side with Mr. Draghi's speech at 8:30 on Friday morning, but might also come from a set of FOMC member speeches in the US that will take place from 14:30 GMT. It remains, however, unlikely that the statements could shake the XAU/USD market significantly.
Gold to test 1,200 mark
Daily chart: Gold extended its weakness on Friday morning following a break below the hourly channel on Thursday. Currently floating around the 1,208.00 mark, the commodity could extend the losses to 1200,77 but is unlikely to slip below. A daily surge is also not out of the picture, as the pair could retrace from the broken trend-line around 1221,80. This is also consistent with the rate being on the fifth wave in the hourly chart. In the unlikely case of a break below the 1200,00 mark, which is strengthened by May lows, the risk will shift to 1193,54 and 1184,24 after that.Daily chart
Hourly chart: XAU/USD conclusively broke the hourly channel and is now on the fifth wave south, meaning that it could fail and a short-term surge could take place. A strong bearish signal is sent by the death cross formation between the 55-hour and 100-hour SMAs, suggesting that the weakness will be long-lived and will overwhelm the reversal attempts. Aggregate technical indicators point to the downside as well, leaving only short-term upside potential.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment improves
OANDA open long positions have slightly decreased and are at 76.86%, compared to 77.17% on Wednesday. SAXO bank traders remain long, as 64.25% of traders bet the metal will surge Friday morning, down from 74.35% during the previous session.