- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 52% bearish
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0717
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Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Kashkari's Speech; US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's Speech; French Presidential Election
After a notable jump on Thursday the EUR/USD pair has retreated to trade back below the weekly R2. However, clues indicate that the surge will continue on Friday. The hourly chart reveals that the resistance of the weekly R2 has been once more broken and the range up to the weekly R3 remains free of resistance. Although, technical analysis might be flawed in the next few trading sessions, as a fundamental event is about to occur in the form of the French presidential election.
US manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region slowed markedly in April, official figures revealed on Thursday. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported its Manufacturing Index dropped to 22.0 in the reported month, following March's reading of 32.8 and falling behind analysts' expectations for a decrease to 25.6 points. Analysts stated that business optimism prompted by Donald Trump's win in the presidential election started to fade, putting downward pressure on business activity.
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Upcoming events: Markets concentrate on French Election
Most market participants are expecting the French election, which is going to happen on April 23. Due to that reason other events have become more or less insignificant. However, there are two speeches, which might be worth listening to. On Friday, at 13:30 GMT, FOMC Member Kashkari will give a public speech. In addition, on early Saturday morning, at 8:15 GMT, the Treasury Secretary of the United States Mnuchin will give a speech.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD back below weekly R2
On Friday morning the common European currency against the US Dollar traded once more below the weekly R2, which is located at the 1.0729 level. The reason for that is the fact that the resistance put up by the weekly R3 at 1.0780 held its ground on Thursday. It is most likely that large fluctuations in the currency pair will not occur during today's trading session, as the French presidential elections will be held on Sunday. These elections are the main focus now for Euro traders, and the results are sure to cause a fundamental shift in the currency pricing.
Daily chart
It can be observed on the hourly chart that the currency pair attempted to break through the weekly R3 two times before it sharply retreated below the weekly R2. However, it could be observed on Friday morning that after trading almost flat for 12 hours the currency pair had broken the combined resistance of the weekly R2 and the 20 and 55-hour SMAs. Due to the fact it is assumed that another attempt at the weekly R3 will occur.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Market sentiment mostly bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 54% of open positions are short. In addition, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders are neutral, as 51.19% of trader open positions are long on Friday, compared to 53.21% previously. However, SAXO bank clients remain bearish, as 59.74% of open positions are short now, compared to the 58.43% positions on Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.08 in July
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 21 and April 21 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.08 in the second half of July. In general, 51% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days, and 21% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 7% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below.