- SWFX traders remain bearish with 54% of open positions being short
- 52% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price opened the day's trading at 1,281.86
- Upcoming Events: UK Prime Minister May's Speech
The yellow metal seems to be trading in accordance with the technical aspects of the commodity price. The bullion retreated down to the trend line of a medium term ascending channel pattern on Friday morning. However, it still remains to be seen, whether a rebound occurs.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid dropped less than expected in the week ended June 2. The Labour Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims fell 10K to 245K last week, following the preceding week's upwardly revised figure of 255K. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a bigger decrease to 241K during the reported week. Nevertheless, claims remained below the 300K level for the 118th consecutive week, the longest streak since 1973.
UK turmoil affects the world
It has been almost a year since the United Kingdom fundamental events managed to affect the whole financial world. Namely, that was the Brexit vote. The turmoil went into another chapter with the elections of the parliament of the country, which once more shook the financial world. Due to that reason the most important scheduled event for this Friday is the speech of Theresa May, which is set to occur at some time during the day. However, some sources have stated that it might get cancelled.
Gold extends losses
During the early hours of Friday's trading session the yellow metal was located near the lower trend line of the medium term ascending channel pattern near the 1,274 level. The metal was facing the resistance of the 200-hour SMA, which was pushing the commodity price into the support level. Due to that reason it is yet to be seen whether the pattern holds its ground. However, it is more likely that it will hold, as no significant fundamental changed have occurred in the world. Moreover, the recent political turmoil in the US has increased. Although, if the trend line is broken a fall down to the monthly PP at the 1,260.13 level will be a high probability. Meanwhile, in the case of breaking free from the 200-hour SMA the bullion might jump to the 1,285 mark.
Hourly Chart
The previous assessments made by looking at the daily chart were wrong. The pair did not stop its decline. It was rather preparing for a much larger decline. Actually, in regard to the daily chart it only can be noted that the 20-day SMA has moved in to help the support of the weekly S1 at the 1,265 level.Daily Chart
SWFX bears dominate
SWFX traders are clearly bearish, as 54% of open positions are short on Friday. Meanwhile, 52% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders remain bullish, as open positions are 55.64% long on Thursday, compared to 55.93% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank remain clearly on the bearish side, as 53.62% of open positions are short, compared to 55.67% on Thursday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being near 1,350 in September
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between May 9 and June 9 expect, on average, to see the metal just below 1,350 in September. Generally, 43% (-1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, there are those, who expect the price to be below 1,300. Namely, 34% of respondents believe that the price will be below the mentioned mark.