Gold continues short term descent

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 54% bullish
  • 57% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,232.63
  • Upcoming Events: US Factory Orders; FOMC Member's Kashkari's Speech
The yellow metal regained its suffered losses during the speeches of US monetary policy makers. However, the recent movements of the commodity price have been perfectly in accordance with the short term descending pattern, which was discovered by Dukascopy analysts on Friday morning. Due to that and other minor aspects, the bullion's price is expected to begin a retreat in the second part of the day's trading session and the near future.

Economic activity in the US services sector rose unexpectedly last month, official figures showed on Friday. The Institute for Supply Management reported its Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector climbed to 57.6 in February, while market analysts expected the Index remain unchanged from the prior month's reading of 56.5 during the reported period. Any reading above the 50-point level indicates activity expansion in the services sector. Furthermore, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index came in at 63.6, the highest level since February 2011, up from the previous month's 60.3. Data also showed the New Orders Index increased to 61.2, the highest since August 2015, following January's 58.6. The ISM said 16 out of 18 industries reported growth last month, adding that the share of companies expressing a positive outlook for the future rose markedly last month despite the existing uncertainty in the US economy. Economic activity contracted in the information industry and the real estate, rental and leasing industry in February.

After the release, the US Dollar hit its intraday high of 114.54 against the Japanese Yen but failed to maintain its gains as investors awaited a speech by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen in the day

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Upcoming events: Factory Orders and FOMC aftermath

During Monday's trading session fundamental events will occur in the US. At 15:00 GMT US Factory orders statistics will be published, and might cause a minor fluctuation. Afterwards, at 20:00 GMT FOMC Member Kashkari is set to give a speech.



Gold bounces around with increased volatility

Daily chart: On Monday morning the yellow metal's price remained unchanged, as the bullion attempted and failed to move higher and break the resistance put up by the 20-day SMA at 1,234.09 and the monthly R1 at 1,237.68. As a result the bullion was set to fall down to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,219.20, which it failed to reach on Friday because comments from US monetary policy makers bashed the strength of the US Dollar lower. That caused the yellow metal to regain the losses it had suffered, as the Buck had strengthened.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The previously revealed descending channel pattern on the hourly chart has been active for the past two trading sessions, as its borders keep the commodity price contained. Most recently the bullion approached the upper trend line of the channel, which combined with the 55-hour SMA are providing resistance and pushing the bullion's price lower.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Trader opinion remains firm

SWFX traders have not changed their opinion, as 54% of open positions are long and 57% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal on Monday.

OANDA Gold traders have almost not changed their bullish outlook, as open positions are 63.14% long on Monday, compared to 54.25% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank also remain with a bullish view on the metal, as 64.25% of open positions are long.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being above 1,250 in April

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between February 6 and March 6 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in April. Generally, 73% (+3%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 23% (-3%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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