- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 57% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0610
- Upcoming Events: US Factory Orders; FOMC Member's Kashkari's Speech; German Factory Orders
Economic activity in the US services sector rose unexpectedly last month, official figures showed on Friday. The Institute for Supply Management reported its Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector climbed to 57.6 in February, while market analysts expected the Index remain unchanged from the prior month's reading of 56.5 during the reported period. Any reading above the 50-point level indicates activity expansion in the services sector. Furthermore, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index came in at 63.6, the highest level since February 2011, up from the previous month's 60.3. Data also showed the New Orders Index increased to 61.2, the highest since August 2015, following January's 58.6. The ISM said 16 out of 18 industries reported growth last month, adding that the share of companies expressing a positive outlook for the future rose markedly last month despite the existing uncertainty in the US economy. Economic activity contracted in the information industry and the real estate, rental and leasing industry in February.
After the release, the US Dollar hit its intraday high of 114.54 against the Japanese Yen but failed to maintain its gains as investors awaited a speech by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen in the day
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Upcoming events: Factory Orders and FOMC aftermath
During Monday's trading session fundamental events will occur in the US. At 15:00 GMT US Factory orders statistics will be published, and might cause a minor fluctuation. Afterwards, at 20:00 GMT FOMC Member Kashkari is set to give a speech. Moreover, during the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the German Factory Orders will be published.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD back above 1.06 mark
Daily Chart: During the early hours of Monday's trading session the common European currency traded at the 1.06 level against the US Dollar. The rate was looking for support, as profit taking was taking place after the major jump, which occurred during Friday's trading session. During Friday's trading session the currency exchange rate jumped from 1.0504 to end the day at 1.0619. The reason for the jump was fundamental, as speeches from the FOMC members dictated the strength of the US Dollar. It is likely that by the end of the day the currency exchange rate will move to the 1.0582 level, where the weekly PP is located at.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that by 09:00 GMT the currency exchange rate had reached the resistance put up by the monthly PP, which is located at 1.0633. Traders have to watch whether the currency pair bounced off the resistance or breaks it, as both scenarios are possible in a fundamental move.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX sentiment almost neutral
SWFX traders are once more almost neutral on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long. Meanwhile, 57% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders have shifted and become bearish, as 52.11% of trader open positions are short at the marketplace, compared to 59.69% long previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients have done the same, as 53.47% of open positions are short, compared to 54.02% long positions on Friday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 in April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between February 6 and March 6 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 by the start of April. In general, 51% (-1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days, and 26% (-1%) see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 6% (-4%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months. © Dukascopy Bank SA