EUR/USD continues to surge

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 53% bullish
  • Trader pending orders are 61% to sell
  • Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0702
  • Upcoming Events: ECB President Draghi Speaks; European PMIs
The common European currency is beginning a short term retreat against the US Dollar, as on Monday morning the pair encountered a resistance level, against which it bounced off. The currency exchange rate might fall as low as the weekly PP, which is located at 1.0666. On the other hand, if Greenbacks weakness persists, the pair might surge, break through the weekly R1 and jump up to the 1.08 mark.

As markets expected, the European Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its January meeting on Thursday. Following the policy meeting, the ECB President Mario Draghi said the Euro zone's economic recovery remained subdued. Moreover, the ECB President stated at the post-meeting press conference that the region's economic growth is unlikely to gain momentum in the upcoming months due to the slow pace of structural reforms. According to Draghi, fiscal policies should also support the Euro zone's economic recovery within the European Commission's system of rules. The headline inflation rate is expected to rise more in the short-term, driven by higher energy prices. In the meantime, the Central bank said that underlying inflationary pressures in the region remained benign. However, the ECB expressed hopes for an increase in core inflation over the medium term. The EUR/USD pair hit its daily low of $1.0607, following Draghi's comments on inflation. The Central bank pointed to an uptick in manufacturing activity and rising confidence indicators. Nevertheless, it signaled it was ready to provide additional monetary stimulus if economic conditions worsen.

Back in December, the Bank cut its monthly asset purchases to 60 billion euros but extended the QE program by six months until at least March 2017.

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Upcoming events: European fundamentals

At 11:30 on Monday ECB President Mario Draghi is set to give a speech regarding European common currency's monetary policy. That is the only notable event set to occur on Monday. However, on Tuesday morning the services and manufacturing PMI's off all of the Eurozone countries are set to be published from 8:00 GMT until 9:00 GMT.



EUR/USD surges to 1.0750 mark

Daily Chart: On early Monday morning the common European currency surged against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate reached the newly calculated first weekly resistance level at 1.0752. However, the pair was stopped by the resistance, which it is most likely to continue to attempt to break through. It is possible that the weekly R1 will be broken, and in such case the rate is set to jump to the 1.08 mark. Although, in case of a bounce off, the pair would fall as low as 1.0666, where the newly calculated pivot point is located at.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the recent surge up to the weekly R1 at 1.0752 is a result of a rebound against the 200-hour SMA on Friday. In addition, it can be seen that the currency pair is attempting to break through the resistance. Due to that no additional statements can be made regarding the future outlook of the pair.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX traders remain firmly bullish

SWFX traders continue to short the Euro, as 53% of trader open positions are short. In addition, 61% of trader set up orders were to sell the Euro.


OANDA traders remain bearish, regarding the pair, as 54.36% of open EUR/USD positions were short on Monday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders increased their bearish outlook, as 61.91% of open positions were short, compared to 60.08% previously.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 in April

Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between December 23 and January 23 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 by the middle of April. In general, 56% of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days and 27% see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 17% of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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