Gold remains above 1,210

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 52% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • 58% of pending commands were to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,215.93
  • Upcoming Events: US CPI; US Core CPI; US Capacity Utilization Rate; US Industrial Production; FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks; Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
After reaching a resistance cluster near 1,219 mark the yellow metal slightly declined and reached as low as 1,211. However, most explain this as a simple profit taking. The reason for that is simple, as the yellow metal has booked seven consecutive sessions of gains. To be precise, the bullion has surged from 1,146 on January 2 to 1,219 on January 17. That is an almost 6.4% gain.

Manufacturing activity in the State of New York dropped more than expected in January, results of the latest The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed on Tuesday. The New York Federal Reserve reported factory activity across the region fell to 6.5 points from December's 9.0 points, while market analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 8.1 in January. However, any reading above the 0 point-level points to expansion in the manufacturing sector. The General Business Conditions Index declined slightly to 6.5 from 7.6 registered in December, remaining in the expansionary territory for the third straight month.

Meanwhile, the New Orders Index dropped to 3.1, following the preceding month's 10.1 points, whereas the Shipments Index remained unchanged at 7.3, pointing to robust shipment growth. In addition, the Delivery Time Index and the Unfilled Orders Index advanced to -2.5 and -1.7 in January, respectively. The Inventories Index jumped 16 points to 2.5, indicating the first increase in inventory level since the middle of 2015. The Future Business Conditions Index held steady at 49.7 in January, after rising sharply in in the wake of Trump's victory in the US presidential election. The Prices Paid Index surged 14 points to 36.1, reaching its highest level since 2014 and pointing to increasing inflation.

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Upcoming fundamental releases: A busy day for fundamentals

During Wednesday's trading session there will be a lot of fundamental events taking place that will affect the financial markets. US CPI and Core CPI will be published at 13:30 GMT. Afterwards, at 14:15 GMT the US Capacity Utilization Rate and US Industrial Production data will be released. In addition, it is the second day of the World Economic Forum. Moreover, important speeches are scheduled for today. At 16:00 GMT FOMC Member Kashkari is set to give a speech, and at 20:00 GMT chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen is set to give a speech.



Gold falls after reaching resistance

Daily chart: After reaching the high level of 1,219, where a combined resistance by the monthly R2 and 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is enforced, the yellow metal retreated on Wednesday morning. In the first quarter of the day the bullion also fell below the closes support level at 1,212.87. That means that the metal might fall next to the medium term ascending channel's lower trend line at 1,203.40. In addition, if that support level is passed, the next notable level of significance below gold will be at 1,191.73.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the weekly R1 is actually holding its line as a support level. However, it does get penetrated a lot, as the metal has fallen below the exact level of support at 1,212.87 three times in the past 24 hours. If the level of significance holds, it is possible that the metal will trade rather flat instead of falling.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Traders gradually reduce bullishness

Traders remain slightly bullish regarding the bullion, as 52% of open SWFX trader positions are long on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

OANDA Gold traders have decreased their largely optimistic outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 71% bullish on Wednesday, compared to 72% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank also remain long, regarding the yellow metal, as 62.84% of open positions are bullish.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being around 1,200 in April

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between December 18 and January 18 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,200 in early April. Generally, 42% (+3%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,250 in ninety days. Alongside, 36% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,000 and 1,200 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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