- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 60% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.0968 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will remain unchanged
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: EU Final CPI; US Empire States Manufacturing Index; US Capacity Utilization Rate; US Industrial Production; FOMC Member Fischer Speaks; ECB President Draghi Speaks; German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
US retail sales rose more than expected last month, official data revealed on Friday. According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales grew 0.6% month-over-month in September, in line with analysts; expectations, whereas the preceding month's figure was revised up to -0.2% from the originally reported reading of -0.3%. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 2.7% in the reported month. Excluding automobiles, building materials, food services and gasoline, retail sales advanced 0.5% in September, following August's upwardly revised drop of 0.2% and surpassing the 0.4% rise forecast. The September growth was mainly driven by sales of automobiles, which rose 1.1% in September after falling 0.3% in August. Other data released by the Department of Labor on the same day showed the Producer Price Index climbed 0.3% in September, compared to last month's 0.0%, while analysts anticipated an increase of 0.2% during the reported period. Year-over-year, the PPI jumped 0.7%, posting the biggest increase since December 2014. Currently, The Atlanta Fed is expecting the US economy to expand at an annualised pace of 2.1% in the Q4 after growing 1.4% in the Q3.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits remained at its 43-year low last week, official figures showed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims held at a seasonally adjusted 246,000 in the week ended October 8, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 252,000 during the reported period. Meanwhile, the preceding week's figure was revised down to 246,000 from the originally reported reading of 249,000. It was the 84th consecutive week of initial claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. The four-moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends, declined 3,500 to 249,250 last week, the lowest level since November 1973. The data also showed the number of continuing claims decreased 16,000 to 2.05 million in the week ending October 1, the lowest level since June 2000, while its four-week moving average fell 25,750 to 2.07 million. In a separate report, the Department of Labor said import prices rose 0.1% month-over-month in September, following August's 0.2% drop and meeting analysts' expectations. On an annual basis, import prices declined 1.1% in the same month, compared to the previous month's 2.2% fall.
Upcoming fundamentals: Various data and Mario Draghi
The EUR/USD pair on Monday is set to be affected by various and many events on both sides of the Atlantic. From the Euro's side the EU Final CPI will be out at 9:00 GMT. Afterwards it is going to be quiet until at 17:35 GMT ECB president Draghi is set to give a speech. At the same time, the German Bundesbank president Weidmann is set to give a speech. US Dollar's strength during the day will be affected by various data releases. First of all at 12:30 GMT the Empire State Manufacturing index will be released. Afterwards, at 13:15 GMT the US Capacity Utilization Rate will be out together with the Industrial Production. Last but not least, the FOMC Member Fischer is set to give a speech at 16:15 GMT.
EUR/USD falls below 1.10 mark
Daily chart: The common European currency scored minor gains against the Greenback on Monday morning. However, previously the pair fell below the 1.10 mark by the end of Friday's trading session, as the currency exchange rate ended the week's trading at 1.0985, compared to the opening price of 1.1055. It is most likely that the rate will continue its way down, as the next notable support level is at 1.0929, where the third monthly support level is located at. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast no change for the pair by the end of today's session.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that the fall of the rate occurred unopposed until the pair fell to the level of 1.0969 at 21:00 GMT. Near that level the rate found support and began to surge until it reached the 20-hour SMA at 5:00 GMT.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bullish
SWFX traders remain slightly bullish, as 54% of open positions are long on Monday. In the meantime, pending commands are 60% to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders have increased their bullishness on Monday, as 63.64% of open EUR/USD positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients remain bearish. However, the bearishness is lower than previously, as open short positions now add up to 51.27% compared to 54.10% during the previous trading session.