- 48% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Gold gained 2.24% over FOMC statements on Wednesday
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Unemployment Claims, RBA Lowe's speech, US Existing Home Sales.
Crude oil inventories in the United States fell sharply last week, official data showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration's weekly report, US crude stocks dropped 6.2 million barrels to a total of 504.6 million in the week ended September 16, compared to the preceding week's decline of 0.6 million barrels, while market analysts anticipated a rise of 3.2 million barrels in the reported week. The data also showed gasoline inventories decreased 3.2 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 567,000 barrel fall, whereas distillate stocks added 2.2 million barrels, compared to the 250,000 increase forecast. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 7.5 million drop in US crude oil inventories for the same week, surpassing the 3.4 million barrel fall market forecast.
US housing starts dropped more than expected last month, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to the US Department of Commerce, housing starts declined 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.14 million units in August, following the preceding month's 1.21 million-unit rate and falling behind the 1.17 million unit pace market forecast. Starts of single family houses declined 6.0% to a 722,000 unit rate in August, the lowest level since October of 2015, whereas housing starts for the volatile multi-family segment dropped 5.4% to a 420,000 unit pace. In the meantime, building permits plunged 0.4% in August to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.14 million units as approvals in the volatile multi-family segment fell 7.2% to a 402,000 unit-pace, whereas permits for single–family homes jumped 3.7% to a 737,000 unit-rate last month. Market analysts expected permits for future construction to hit 1.17 million units in the reported month. In regional terms, single-family new house construction building permits fell in both the Northeast and South 13.8% and 13.1%, respectively, but increased in the West and Midwest. After the release, the US Dollar fell slightly, trading at 1.1182 against the Euro, 1.2967 against the British Pound and 101.83 against the Japanese Yen.
Upcoming fundamentals: US Unemployment Claims
Fundamental news could shake the markets on Thursday, with the United States unemployment figure, CB leading index, HPI and Existing Home Sales release taking over EUR/USD movements. A forecast of 261k up from 260k will lead the nature of the surprise regarding unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT, while other less significant releases could play around with the XAU/USD value on a smaller scale all day. Existing US home sales could add to the volatility at 14:00 GMT. A Japanese Banking holiday could leave a mark on the fluctuations as well.
XAU/USD in battle with 1333.00
Daily chart: Gold opened bearish on Thursday after yet another confirmation of the 1307.85 support level some days ago. Currently testing the 1333.00 mark, where the 55-day SMA lies, the metal could escape the falling bias at 1326.43/1325.18, the monthly Pivot Point, weekly R1 and 20-day SMA cluster and set the annual channel bottom trend-line at 1321.72 as its next target. A bounce form 1333.00 would, however, put the weekly R2 at 1341.79 in perspective, painting the technical picture bullish in general with a move in line with the senior channel pattern. A break above the aforementioned level would expose 1347.94/1348.50, paving the way for a rally extension.Daily chart
Hourly chart: Gold gained around two percent over Wednesday's trading session, over a series of announcements by the FOMC with highest volatility at 18:00 GMT, when the metal outperformed the US Dollar by a percent over a period of one hour. After tapping at the 1334.96 mark, the precious metal gave in to supply pressures, slightly sinking into what appears to be a consolidation phase with low volatility and a support area at 1331.58. Tougher levels lie around 1325.81 where the pair to head to in case the aforementioned support level grants access to levels underneath. A surge, on the other hand would be restricted by the 1338.79 mark, where the September 9 high will remind of itself.
Hourly chart
Traders show mixed expectations on the bullion
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are largely bullish with respect to the bullion, meaning that 71.38% of positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients show a similar trend with 58.01% of all positions being held by bulls.