- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- Trader set up pending orders are 58% to sell
- Pair opened Wednesday's session at the 1.1151 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will remain unchanged
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement; US Federal Funds Rate; FOMC Press Conference.
US housing starts dropped more than expected last month, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to the US Department of Commerce, housing starts declined 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.14 million units in August, following the preceding month's 1.21 million-unit rate and falling behind the 1.17 millionunit pace market forecast. Starts of single family houses declined 6.0% to a 722,000 unit rate in August, the lowest level since October of 2015, whereas housing starts for the volatile multi-family segment dropped 5.4% to a 420,000 unit pace. In the meantime, building permits plunged 0.4% in August to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.14 million units as approvals in the volatile multi-family segment fell 7.2% to a 402,000 unit-pace, whereas permits for single–family homes jumped 3.7% to a 737,000 unit-rate last month. Market analysts expected permits for future construction to hit 1.17 million units in the reported month. In regional terms, single-family new house construction building permits fell in both the Northeast and South 13.8% and 13.1%, respectively, but increased in the West and Midwest. After the release, the US Dollar fell slightly, trading at 1.1182 against the Euro, 1.2967 against the British Pound and 101.83 against the Japanese Yen.
Confidence among US homebuilders improved in the ninth month of the year, official data revealed on Monday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) jumped to 65 in September, the highest reading since October last year, whereas market analysts expected the Index to come in at 60 points. The August reading was revised down to 59 from the originally reported reading of 60. Any reading above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook. The Index was seen mostly at 58 points, rising to 61 in January. According to the report, current sales advanced to 71 in September from August's 65, the fastest pace in nearly nine years, whereas sales expectations in the next six months climbed to 71 from the preceding month's 64. In the meantime, buyer traffic rose to 48 from last month's 44 points, remaining below the 50-point level. In regional terms, on a three-month moving average basis, homebuilder confidence in both the Northeast and South increased one point to 42 and 64 points, respectively, as well as it improved in the West to 73 from last month's 69 points. The Index found builder sentiment held steady at 55 in the Midwest.
Upcoming fundamentals: Federal Open Markets Committee
As the title suggests, the markets today will be affected by the Federal Open Markets Committee, which is meeting today. The information flow from the committee will come in at 18:00 GMT, as at that time various data will be released. First of all the FOMC will publish their Economic Projections and their Statement. However, the most important will be the Federal Funds Rate at that time. Afterwards, as it is accustomed, the FOMC will host a press conference at 18:30 GMT.
EUR/USD falls below SMAs on Wednesday
Daily chart: The Euro is trading below a combined cluster of the 55 and 200-day simple moving averages against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate fell below the 1.1150 mark. Although, it was forecasted that the rate will remain squeezed in between two clusters of significant levels, the pair also had reached above the pivot point cluster above, and it touched the 1.12 level. The outlook for the Euro looks grim today, as it is most likely to move lower and search for support in the first weekly support level at 1.1106 and the lower Bollinger band at the same level.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair reveals some additional insights into the pair's movements. First of all, the Euro attempted to break through the resistance cluster at 6:00 GMT, when it suddenly surged and broke past the 55-hour SMA and the weekly and monthly pivot points. Although, the currency exchange rate was stopped and reversed by the 100-hour SMA around 7:00 GMT. Since then the rate has been falling and approaching the first weekly support level, which is located at 1.1106.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bearish
OANDA traders have become slightly bearish on the pair, as 51.36% of open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have decreased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 59.05% compared to 63.23% of last trading session.