- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bearish
- Trader set up pending orders are 53% to sell
- Pair opened Thursday's session at the 1.1250 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: EU CPI ; EU Trade Balance; US Retail Sales; US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index; US Unemployment Claims; US Current Account; US Empire State Manufacturing Index; US Capacity Utilization Rate; US Industrial Production;
According to the official figures, industrial production across the 19- country Euro zone slipped by 1.1% in July, showing a development that could seriously weigh on the region's third-quarter growth. It is worth to point out that industrial production in the single currency region has been highly volatile for the last months, jumping in some and slumping in others. But overall, during the last 12 months it has declined, a key source of weakness for the UK economy that has struggled to create jobs and now are facing strong uncertainties after the UK's June vote to leave the European Union. In the meantime, the production of capital goods decreased by 1.7%, while energy production was 1.4% lower and durable consumer goods production lost 0.7%. The production of intermediate goods, in turn, was down 0.5% while production of non-durable consumer goods was unchanged. On the annual pace, industrial production in the Euro bloc was 0.5% lower, which was ahead of analysts' expectations of a 0.7% drop. In the EU-28 group of countries, industrial production went down 1% on the month and 0.1% on the yearly period.
US import prices dropped unexpectedly last month amid lower petroleum and food prices, official data revealed on Wednesday. According to the Department of Labor, import prices fell 0.2% on a monthly basis in August, compared to the preceding month's unrevised gain of 0.1%, whereas market analysts penciled in a decline of 0.1% in the reported month. Moreover, that was the first monthly fall since February. Lower oil prices as well as the strong US dollar put downward pressure on the price of imports last month. August's decline in import prices was led by a monthly fall in the cost of imported communications equipment, which dropped 1.0%. On the positive side, the price of imports from Japan jumped 0.3% in the reported month, posting the largest increase since August 2011. The cost of imported petroleum fell 2.8% in August, following the previous month's decrease of 3.6%. Excluding petroleum, import prices remained unchanged after rising 0.5% in July. Other data released by the US Energy Information Administration on the same day showed that crude oil inventories fell 0.6 million barrels in the week ended September 9, following the 14.5 million barrel drop seen in the previous seven days and surpassing the 2.8 million barrel gain forecast.
Upcoming fundamentals: Loads of data from both sides
It is set to be a busy day for the EUR/USD pair and the Dukascopy team, as data affecting it from both sides is set to be released and covered live on the Dukascopy webinar during Thursday's trading session. First data from the EU will be released, as a bundle of releases will occur at 9:00 GMT. At that time the EU CPI and Core CPI will be released, and, in addition, the EU Trade Balance will be out. Data from the US will begin pouring in at 12:30 GMT, as various indicators and data are set to be released. At that time the US Retail Sales and PPI data for August will be released. In addition, simultaneously the Philly Fed Manufacturing and Empire State Manufacturing Index will be published. Moreover, US Unemployment Claims together with the Current Account of the country will be out at the same time. If that will not satisfy the hunger of the market for information, US Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production will be released at 13:15 GMT.
EUR/USD trades above weekly PP
Daily chart: The common European currency had slightly retreated from the day's trading session's opening price against the US Dollar on Thursday morning. However, the currency exchange rate faces no resistance up to the level of 1.1326, where the first weekly resistance is located at. Moreover, the weekly R1 is part of a cluster made up also from the monthly R1 at 1.1334 and the upper Bollinger band. Due to that and the combination of other technical factors the rate is set to end today's session higher.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the pair shows that in the last 24 hour the currency exchange rate has one by one overtaken all of the hourly simple moving averages. Although, after surging after the breaking of the resistance put up by the 100-hour SMA at 1.1239 by 15:00 GMT, the pair retreated to fluctuate back between the upper Bollinger band and the 20-hour SMA. Due to that it can be predicted that the surge will continue slowly.
Hourly chart
Traders don't even flinch
OANDA trader bearish sentiment has slightly decreased, compared to Wednesday's 57.80%, as, at the moment, 56.71% of OANDA open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have also increased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 68.0% compared to 66.17% of last trading session.