- 52% of all SWFX open positions are short on Monday
- Prices fell below 1,345 level on Thursday morning
- A fall was caused by US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 6); US Import Price Index (July)
The number of job openings in the United States increased more than expected during the sixth month of the year, official data showed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of positions waiting to be filled rose to 5.62 million in June, following last month's upwardly revised figure of 5.51 million. Market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 5.52 million in the reported month. Furthermore, there were 5.1 million hires and 4.9 million separations with 2.9 million quits in June. The JOLTS report is closely followed by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who often cites it when assessing the state of the labour market. US crude oil inventories rose for the third consecutive week, surpassing analysts' expectations, the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration revealed on Wednesday. US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended August 5, following the 1.4 million barrel rise posted in the previous seven days. Meanwhile, markets expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels in the reported period. Recently, the International Energy Agency revised up significantly its 2017 global oil demand growth forecast to 97.4 million barrels per day, whereas the World Bank downgraded its 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4% from January's 2.9%.
On Wednesday, at the conclusion of RBNZ August monetary meeting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the deep of a record-low rate equalling 2%. The decision made by Reserve Bank of New Zealand met market expectations by delivering a rate cut and hinted that more monetary policy easing might be added in future. Nevertheless, some economists still were expecting RBNZ to cut harder, with the Kiwi dollar going down as soon as the decision was announced. Moreover, according to the RBNZ, the annual inflation rate is expected to begin recovering during the last quarter of this year. Also, the RBNZ pointed out, that firm actions could be started until early 2017, hinting the central bank will wait at least some time in order to reassess the necessity of another cut. The officials said the buoyant housing market resumes to pose financial stability risks and promised to consult on stronger macro measures. It is worth to point out, the RBNZ has another challenge alike as the Australia's RBA in lowering interest rates - managing the rising risks of a housing bubble. In the meantime, despite the talks the exchange rate is too high, while inflation too low, the signals that more easing is coming in near future, the New Zealand dollar advanced following the rate cut, jumping to its highs of .7341 after the decision.
Upcoming fundamentals: US employment and imports
The outlook for today seems non-volatile, as there seem to be almost no data releases, which could change the yellow metal's prices, as two data releases are set for the day. US Initial Jobless Claims for August 6 are forecasted to be at 264,000 this week. In the meantime, US Import Price Index for July will be published today, and it is forecasted to be a negative 0.2%. Both data releases will happen at the same time, at exactly 12:30 GMT.
Gold bounces off pivot points at 1,345
Daily chart: The bullion surged during Wednesday's trading session, as it even touched the weekly R1 at 1,356.64. However, the metal ended the day's trading session at the combined level of the weekly and monthly pivot points just at 1,345. At the start of Thursday's session the yellow metal started the day's trading session slightly higher at 1,346.61, and began to fall, as it had moved below the level of combined pivot points to trade at 1,342.27 by 5:15 GMT. Although, it might be temporary, as daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge for the metal today.Daily chart
Hourly chart: On the hourly chart for gold it can be sees that the yellow metal was slowly surging on the morning of Wednesday, as it was closing in on the weekly R1 at 1,356.64, which it reached at 12:00 GMT. Afterwards, the metal bounced off the resistance and fell, ignoring the 200-hour SMA at 1,349.40 and the 20-hour SMA at 1,348.03. The bullion found support in a cluster made up of the weekly and monthly pivot points around the level of 1,345 and the 100-hour SMA at 1,344.71 by 14:00 GMT. However, as the 100-hour SMA moved lower later on, gold moved below the pivot points. By 4:00 GMT, the commodity once again found support, as it encountered the 55 and 100- hour SMAs at 1,342.50.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment bearish on Wednesday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 60.07%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are less bullish on the yellow metal, as 58.96% of positions are long.