- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- Pending commands in the 100-pip range 55% short
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.1173 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will remain unchanged
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Spanish PMI Manufacturing (July); Italian PMI Manufacturing (July); French PMI Manufacturing (July); German PMI Manufacturing (July); EU PMI Manufacturing (July); US PMI Manufacturing (July); US ISM Manufacturing
The Consumer Price Index in the Euro zone's largest economy, Germany, continued to rise in July, the third consecutive month of growth, the Federal Statistics Office revealed on Thursday, but remained comfortably below the target level. The flash estimate from Destatis showed that consumer prices in Europe's economic powerhouse increased 0.3% month-over-month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.1% in the previous month, while market analysts penciled in an acceleration to 0.2% in the seventh month of the year. On annual basis, the CPI climbed 0.4% in the same month, up from last month's final reading of 0.3%. In the meantime, the German Unemployment Change report published by the German Statistics Office on Thursday revealed that the unemployment rate in the country remained at 6.1% in July, whereas the number of unemployed people in the Euro zone's number one economy dropped by 7,000 in the reported month, compared to a fall of 6,000 registered in the preceding month, while economic desks anticipated a decline of 3,000 in July. The jobless rate in Germany stayed at the lowest level in the last 20 years. The European Central Bank aims to maintain inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States last week rose more than expected, fresh figures from the Department of Labor revealed on Thursday. Initial jobless claims grew by 14,000 to 266,000 in the week ended July 23, compared to the previous week's revised figure of 252,000, while market analysts expected jobless claims to rise by 9,000 to 261,000 in the reported week. Nevertheless, the less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average fell 1,000 to 256,500 in the preceding week, the lowest level since April. Furthermore, this week marked the 73rd consecutive week of initial jobless claims remaining below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment aid increased by 7,000 to 2.14 million in the week ended July 16, whereas the four-week average of continuing jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since November 2000. The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that conditions in the US labor market improved significantly and that the latest indicators pointed to some increase in labor utilization. As markets expected, the US central bank left its key interest rates unchanged at its meeting on July 27, citing concerns over low inflation.
Upcoming fundamentals: PMI Manufacturing data
With the start of a new month the EUR/USD pair will be affected by PMI Manufacturing indices for July coming from both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, as starting with 7:15 GMT, when the Spanish PMI Manufacturing will be released, data will come from the EU member countries. At 7:45 GMT Italian PMI Manufacturing index will be out, and afterwards, with a five minute interval, at 7:50 GMT the French release their PMI Manufacturing and the German PMI Manufacturing at 7:55 GMT. At 8:00 GMT the common EU PMI Manufacturing will be out. In the meantime, the US Dollar will be affected by the US PMI Manufacturing at 13:45 GMT. Afterwards the US ISM Manufacturing will be released at 14:00 GMT.
EUR/USD nearing 1.12 mark on Monday
Daily chart: The common European currency surged majorly against the US Dollar on Friday, as the pair surged from 1.1074 to 1.1172 during the day's trading session. With the start of a new week, on Monday, the currency exchange rate slightly gained, as it was at 1.1176 by 5:15 GMT. The pair faces no almost no resistance up to the level of the newly formed weekly R1 at 1.1263, as on the wait northwards are located only the upper Bollinger band at 1.1190 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1235. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast no change for the pair today.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart of the EUR/USD currency exchange rate shows nothing, except a clear surge, which is happening above the 20-hour SMA and below the upper Bollinger band.
Hourly chart
SWFX bearish sentiment increases on Monday
OANDA trader bearish sentiment has increased compared to Friday's 56.70%, as, at the moment, 63.78% of OANDA open positions are short. In addition, SAXO Bank clients have slightly increased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 68.39% compared to 62.98% of last trading session.