- Bullish majority stabilised at 53% on Friday
- Price was unable to consolidate above monthly R1 at 1,147 for three days in a row
- Daily technical indicators are back to neutral, weekly studies are mixed as well
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: French Budget Balance (Aug) and Industrial Output (Aug); Italian Industrial Output (Aug); US Import Price Index (Sep); FOMC Members Lockhart and Evans Speak; Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (Sep); IMF Meeting in Peru; UK Trade Balance (Aug)
Among the most recent fundamentals, the unemployment rate in Switzerland remained almost unchanged in the ninth month of the year, the most recent official statistics revealed yesterday. Measured on a monthly basis, the jobless rate held steady at 3.2% and, thus, remained equal to the 3.2% recorded in the preceding month and was in line with analysts' forecasts. In the same month a year ago, however, the rate was 3%. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate stepped up to 3.4% on month in September from 3.3% booked in August. This figure was also in line with economists' expectations of 3.4%.
Meanwhile, a rebound in capital expenditure in Japan was proved elusive, as machine orders fell at their fastest pace since 2014 in the eighth month of the year, undermining the BoJ optimism. Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of corporate capital investment, slumped 5.7% on a monthly basis in August, following a 3.6% decline in the prior month. The market consensus expected the reading to post a 3.2% gain in the reported period. The data followed the BoJ survey, which indicated a growth in business investment for the current fiscal year, despite continued uncertainty over the global economy and sluggish growth in household spending in Japan.
Upcoming fundamentals: Canada's jobless rate to decline below 7%
Economists suggest the Canadian economy is on track of adding more than 10,000 jobs in September, after a 12,500 advance we saw in August. As a result of that, the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 6.9%, falling back below a surprising 7% reading in the preceding month. This data is due at 12:30 GMT on Friday. Meanwhile, British trade deficit is currently estimated to decrease slightly in August, down from the record-high of 11.1 billion pounds in July to around 10 billion pounds in the reporting month.
Gold targets 1,147 for fourth consecutive day
From Tuesday till Thursday the precious metal was unable to penetrate the monthly R1 at 1,147. This resistance is strengthened by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July 2015 downtrend at 1,151. Following a bullish bounce back from yesterday's lows around 1,138, we expect the bullion to continue attacking the mentioned monthly resistance line. A rise above 1,151 would allow for a climb up to 1,155 in the near-term and 1,170 during the next trading week. On the other hand, any losses are likely to be limited by a powerful demand at 1,133/30.Daily chart
Even though the price has mostly stagnated since Tuesday, it is still hovering well above the 200-hour SMA, which is presently accompanied by the 2014 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July 2015 downtrend. This state of affairs supports the positive case for the foreseeable future.
Hourly chart
SWFX bullish share flat at 53%
Among other market players, OANDA's bullish share rebounded marginally to 58.14% by Friday morning. Alongside, SAXO Bank long traders regained one percentage point they lost two days ago, to show a rise from 60% to 61%.