- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are slightly bullish (53% long / 47% short)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1294
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1245
- Upcoming events on June 17: Italy Trade Balance (Apr), Euro zone CPI (May), Germany 10-y Bond Auction, Fed Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement
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The most recent round of Greek debt negotiations has broken up in Brussels, just 45 minutes after the meeting started. These talks were one of the last attempts of debt-burdened Greece and its creditors to reach any agreement in order to unlock as much as 7.2 billion euros in financial aid. Following the short meeting, the European Commission said that there was progress made; however, it was not enough to narrow a significant gap between the institutions and Greece over the conditions to receive the last payment from the second bailout programme.
The bailout prepared for the Greeks in 2012 by the IMF, ECB and the European Commission expires in two weeks on June 30. The next deadline for signing any deal is now June 18, when finance ministers of the Euro zone meet in Luxembourg for the Eurogroup summit.
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All eyes on Fed as two-day FOMC meeting begins
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, in order to discuss the latest developments in the US economy and to make the monetary policy decisions. The announcement of the benchmark interest rate is expected at 18:00 PM GMT, which will be followed by the policy statement. The latter event seems to have more impact on the markets, as it may indicate the possible timing of the long-awaited interest rate hike is the US.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value, trading range to narrow down
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since May of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards on a long-term chart. At the same time, it seems that now the pair is being bounded between the 2014 low and long-term downtrend line, meaning that it is currently hovering inside the descending triangle pattern. Moreover, this pattern implies a narrowing trading range, while the break-out point can be reached by the end of August. In the medium-term the common European currency may surge up to the 1.1330 mark where long-term downtrend is able to push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. However, the pair can also assume a possibility of growing as high as 200-day SMA around five figures above the downtrend, before finally making a decision to commence a bearish correction.Daily chart
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The Euro started trading at low levels on Monday, namely around the 1.12 mark. However, the intraday development confirmed the single currency's strength, as the EUR/USD cross climbed towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1294. However, it remains quite difficult for the pair to violate at the moment. Moreover, the Euro is required to close even above the recent high at 1.1380 to affirm the bullish intentions for the medium-term. Otherwise, the risk of failure still remains in place.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment flat for seventh day, long orders above 50%
Meanwhile, pending orders to buy or sell the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price have eventually surpassed the 50% mark, by gaining five percentage points yesterday to 53% in the morning today.
It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's near-term gains can be extended up to the monthly R1 at 1.1360. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is likely to be limited by the 20-day SMA, currently at 1.1189.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 16 and Jun 16 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.10 by the end of September. Though the majority of participants, namely 60% of them, believe the exchange rate will trade below this mark this level in ninety days, with 27% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, only 15% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of September of this year.
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