- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are moderately bullish (56% long / 44% short)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1245
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1129
- Upcoming events on June 8: Germany Trade Balance (Apr), G7 Summit
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The Greek government decided to postpone its June 5 payment to the International Monetary Fund, becoming the first country to delay a payment to the international lender of last resort since the 1980s. Greece has notified the IMF it plans to bundle its loan repayments due this month into one payment of around $1.7 billion.
Nevertheless, until Thursday, Athens said it was not considering using the bundling option, due to concern that the move would reveal that the country had no money to meet the regular payment schedule—a signal that some officials feared might urge Greeks to accelerate their recent withdrawals of bank deposits. Greece had four loan repayments to the IMF due this month, on June 5, 12, 16 and 19.
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German trade data is due on Monday
Monday will bring only one important data release from the Euro zone, as German trade balance for April will be published at 6:00 AM GMT. Meanwhile, leaders of seven industrialised nations will meet together on Sunday-Monday at the G7 Summit in Bavaria, Germany.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value, trading range to narrow down
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since May of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards on a long-term chart. At the same time, it seems that now the pair is being bounded between the 2014 low and long-term downtrend line, meaning that it is currently hovering inside the descending triangle pattern. Moreover, this pattern implies a narrowing trading range, while the break-out point can be reached by the end of August. In the medium-term the common European currency may surge up to the 1.1330 mark where long-term downtrend is able to push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. However, the pair can also assume a possibility of growing as high as 200-day SMA around five figures above the downtrend, before finally making a decision to commence a bearish correction.Daily chart
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EUR/USD rallied as high as monthly R1 on Thursday, thus surpassing the 1.1360 mark. At the same time, the pair halted around these levels, which are also reinforced by the 2014-2015 downtrend line. As a result, the Euro was sent back below the weekly R3 at 1.1245. Should the pair fails to return back above 1.1315 immediately, the risk will then go short and bears will look for a slide towards the 1.11 area (monthly PP, 100-day SMA).
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment unchanged since Tuesday, pending orders improve
Meanwhile, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price have climbed again during the past 24 hours, as they came closer towards the level seen two days ago at 56% in the morning on Friday.
It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's near-term gains can be extended up to the 23.6% Fibo at 1.1294. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is likely to be capped by the weekly R1 at 1.1127.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to depreciate against the US Dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
aslamhammad, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the single currency by saying that "EUR/USD will close lower on this Friday 5th of June." He also expects "the European Interest rate to remain unchanged at 0.05%."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 5 and June 5 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.11 by the end of September. Though the majority of participants, namely 59% of them, believe the exchange rate will trade generally below 1.12 in ninety days, with 41% alone seeing it below 1.08. Alongside, 18% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.12 and 1.18 by the end of September of this year.
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