- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are positive (59% bullish / 41% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1257
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1101
- Upcoming events on May 7: Germany Factory Orders (Mar), US Unemployment Claims (May 1)
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The number of registered unemployed in Spain declined more than expected in April, according to the Spanish Employment Ministry. The number of unemployed fell by 118,900 last month, following a drop by 60,200 in March and overshooting economists' expectations for a 65,100 decrease. Yet, the nation's jobless rate remains at unhealthy high level of 23.78% in the first quarter of 2015, compared with 23.70% recorded in the previous three-month period.
Meanwhile, a separate report showed industrial producer prices in the Euro zone, a bellwether for the closely watched consumer prices, fell again in March, with the gauge booking its 20th consecutive month in contraction on an annual basis, Eurostat reported. Measured on an annual basis, the Producer Price Index declined 2.3% in March, following February's 2.8% decrease.
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No major news to drive EUR/USD pair tomorrow
On Thursday, the biggest part of fundamental news will be published outside Europe or the United States. Therefore, any impact on the EUR/USD currency pair is expected to be negligible, unless data on US employment claims or German factory orders surprises markets with steep changes against expectations.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of June, the common European currency may surge up to the 1.15 mark where long-term downtrend will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. In the meantime, the Euro's parity against the US Dollar is not off the table in the long-term.Daily chart
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After two consecutive days of losses, EUR/USD renewed its bullish trend on Tuesday, while growth continues taking place in the early morning on Wednesday. Still, considerable resistance is created by 100-day SMA, currently at 1.1257, as well as 38.2% Fibo of Dec-Mar downtrend and 23.6% Fibo of May-Mar downtrend. In case this dense zone is penetrated, the Euro is likely to develop further upwards, by setting eyes at monthly R1 (1.1486).
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment is bearish, pending orders jumped significantly
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price surged very noticeably during the past 24 hours and became unusually positive on the single currency. They added 23% from Tuesday to reach 59% this morning. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be extended up to the weekly R1 at 1.1383. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be capped by the weekly PP at 1.1101.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to grow against US Dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
geula4x, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "EUR/USD seems very bullish on the daily chart. Price has bounced off 1.0660 support area and moved sharply higher last week. This area is double-bottom support, which held price from April 21 till April 23. Price has been moving strongly higher, suggesting that bullish momentum is intact."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Apr 6 and May 6 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.08 by the end of August. Though the majority of participants, namely 53% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop below this level in ninety days, with 33% alone seeing it below 1.04. Alongside, 26% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.08 and 1.14 by the end of August of this year.
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