- Opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive (73% bullish / 27% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,187
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,183
- Upcoming events on April 28: US Consumer Confidence (Apr), UK First-Estimate GDP (Q1), New Zealand Trade Balance (Mar)
Bullion traded near the lowest level in five weeks on Monday as strong equities undermined its safe have lure, while investors focused on the Fed's policy meeting this week for hints on the timing of a US rate hike. While market expectations were for a June rate hike, recent soft fundamentals stoked speculation that the US central bank could postpone the move to September. Traders also continued to watch closely Greece's talks with its creditors. After no agreement was reached between Greece and Euro zone finance ministers during their meeting in Latvia's capital Riga last week, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Berlin was getting ready for a potential Greek default.
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank stands ready to intervene in currency market, the central bank's President Thomas Jordan said. Swiss policy makers have pledged repeatedly to intervene in the FX market in recent months, after abandoning a cap of 1.20 per Euro on the Swiss Franc in the beginning of the year.
UK GDP expected to show slower growth in Q1
On Tuesday of this week, the UK Office for National Statistics will announce the country's pace of economic growth for the first quarter of 2015. The first-estimate data is forecasted to reveal somewhat weaker GDP advance in January-March, compared with last three months of 2014. On average, analysts predict to see a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise and a 2.6% jump on the annual basis.XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line, at that time located around 1,150. Towards the end of June the bullion is likely to develop in the direction of the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,260 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. However, the metal can also be stopped by the 200-day SMA around 1,220. The overall negative trend for Gold seems inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
Being strongly influenced by downward-sloping 55 and 20-day SMAs, the yellow metal slumped significantly during last trading session of the previous week. Weakness of Gold allowed bears to push the bullion through monthly PP and 2013 low at 1,183 and 1,180, respectively. The price has only been stopped by the lower Bollinger band at 1,175, which is also fuelling the bullion with some bullish momentum on Monday. In the short-term, we may observe some bullishness in the form of recovery; however, the longer-term outlook for Gold remains bearish.
Hourly chart
SWFX opened positions on Gold remain strongly positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened positions stays at 66.12% at the moment, and Gold's sentiment there is currently the fifth most positive among all major currency pairs. Saxo Bank market participants are also confident with respect to the precious metal's growth perspectives, as there are 61% of bullish positions registered by 5:30am GMT on April 27.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Mar 27 and Apr 27 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,230 by the end of July. At the same time, 49% of them still believe the bullion will be even above 1,250 in three months, while 31% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,250.