- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (35% bullish / 65% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0735
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0553
- Upcoming events on April 14: Germany Wholesale Price Index (Mar), Euro zone Industrial Production (Feb), US Retail Sales (Mar)
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France, the Euro zone's second biggest economy, saw its industrial production remaining flat in February, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. Analysts, however, had expected a 0.1% decline. Measured on the annual basis, industrial output rose 0.6% in the measured month, compared with a revised 0.5% advance in January.
Meanwhile, in Spain industrial production rose, recovering from a slowdown in January. Measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, industrial output rose 1.1% on year in February, after reporting a 2% drop a month earlier. However, industrial output increased 0.6% during February on a seasonally adjusted annual basis compared to the preceding month's 0.4% rise.
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US retail sales expected to rebound on March
According to the average estimates, retail sales' volume in the United States has probably advanced in March of this year, following three consecutive months of continuous drops. In addition to that, the same situation is forecasted to take place with the Euro area's industrial production which is likely to show a 0.3% rise in February on a monthly basis, up from -0.1% a month before.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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For a fifth consecutive day, the Euro plunged in its value on Friday of last week. Bears gained enough strength after they managed to push EUR/USD below 2003 low at 1.0759 back on Thursday. However, a decline of the pair was rather surprisingly stopped by the lower Bollinger band at 1.0571, and the cross is still trading above this level. At the same time, daily technical indicators do not predict any revival, while weekly ones are bearish. Therefore, in case the Euro drops below 1.0550, it may head towards this year's low at 1.0461.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment remains above 50%, pending orders most negative in two weeks
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot plunged even further to reach just 35% today, as they accumulated a total loss of 20% over last trading week. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.0735. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended below this year's low at 1.0461.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 13 and Apr 13 expect, on average, to see the currency pair at 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 54% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 27% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 22% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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