- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (40% bullish / 60% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0872
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0811
- Upcoming events on April 9: Germany Industrial Production (Feb) and Trade Balance (Feb), US Unemployment Claims (Apr 3)
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The Euro zone' services sector continued to expand, adding to signs the economic recovery is taking hold in the region. The services PMI came in at 54.2, up from 53.7 in the preceding month and hitting nearly four-year high. In Germany, the Euro zone's growth engine, activity in the services sector rose to a six-month high in March, with the corresponding gauge coming in at 55.4 up from February's 54.7.
Moreover, in France, the Euro zone's second biggest economy, activity in the services sector increased for the second consecutive month. Even though the final services PMI came in at 52.4 in the reported month, down from 53.4 in February, the index remained in the expansion territory.
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German trade and manufacturing data to be watched tomorrow
In terms of potential foreign exchange market's fundamental drivers on April 9, markets will definitely be looking at a bunch of data from Germany. The Euro zone's biggest economy will release numbers on industrial production and trade balance for February, while both indicators are forecasted to improve further, supporting the case for economy's rebound.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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Yesterday, EUR/USD's bears managed to push this currency pair below the major support level around 1.09. Moreover, as expected the common currency declined to reach the monthly PP at 1.0811 at the end of trading session, following a violation of weekly PP and downtrend earlier the same day. The closest demand is at present reinforced by weekly S1 and 2003 low. Probability of a drop in the near-term is therefore rather low, meaning that we can see some rebound in course of Wednesday, with the daily target at 20-day SMA (1.0872).
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot plunged even further yesterday to reach just 40% today. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.0903. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to 2003 low at 1.0759.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to rebound considerably this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Mohands_moslim, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the EUR/USD is going to continue retracement up to 1.1244 and low at 1.10960." On the other hand, pipx has an opposite view on the situation, suggesting that "The EUR will continue to weaken and it might erase the gains which were made during the previous week."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 8 and Apr 8 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 55% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 32% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 18% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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