- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (42% bullish / 58% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0902
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0868
- Upcoming events on April 6: US Markit Services PMI (Mar) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
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The ECB's official account of the last policy meeting showed the central bank may change the pace of its unprecedented bond-buying programme. While Governing Council members currently consider the scope of the quantitative-easing programme appropriate, this assessment may change over time as the latest economic estimates are surrounded by higher-than-usual uncertainty. The ECB predicted consumer prices would remain unchanged this year before climbing to 1.8% in 2017.
Meanwhile, Greece proposed its most comprehensive reform plan to its creditors during teleconference talks with the Euro Working Group, but has yet to receive any remaining bailout funds. The plan consists of a 26-page list of reform proposals covering taxation, privatisations, public sector, labour market, healthcare, and etc. The proposals were discussed by the Euro Working Group; however, there was no real breakthrough resulting in unlocking any bailout funds Greece.
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Monday to have little volatility amid holidays
Easter holidays during the weekend and on Monday is estimated to result is smaller than usual volatility on the foreign exchange in the beginning of a new week. Moreover, there are just few fundamentals expected to be published on April 6. Among them, Markit will release both US services PMI and composite PMI, which also includes the manufacturing industry. The European side will remain without any news for a second trading day in a row.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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On Thursday, the single European currency continued gaining ground for a second consecutive day. EUR/USD rose rather significantly, by crossing the major resistance at 1.0811 (monthly PP). However, bullish momentum was exhausted around the weekly PP at 1.0902, which stopped the Euro from going further to the north. As a result, the cross closed just below 1.09 by the end of trading session. Being that the weekly PP is also reinforced by the medium-term down-trend around 1.0950, on Friday the pair may bounce back, if supported by optimistic US jobs' report.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment and pending orders are negative
Additionally, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are accounting for 42% in the morning today, up two percentage points from yesterday. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the weekly PP at 1.09. On the other hand, a potential downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended down to 1.05.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to grow against US dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Likerty, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the Euro has plenty of technical supports to re-test the 1.060 level." In addition to that, he expects the US dollar to show some weakness during the period of this trading week.
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 3 and Apr 3 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 55% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 27% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 19% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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