- Opened positions on Gold remain positive (64% bullish / 36% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,209
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,198
- Upcoming events on March 27: US Final GDP (Q4) and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar), Fed's Yellen Speech, Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney Speech
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Among fundamentals, orders for durable goods in the United States have surprisingly slipped in February of the current year, even though the majority of analysts predicted this statistical indicator to increase slightly by 0.2% on month-to-month basis. A decline reached 1.4% last month and followed a downward-revised 2% gain in the preceding month.
Moreover, orders for non-military capital goods that exclude transportation items diminished as much as 0.4%, after a zero growth in January, which initially used to be positive at 0.3% but was also revised to the negative side. For the core indicator it was the sixth consecutive month with worse-than-estimated data released, while in five out of six times core orders were falling down on a monthly basis.
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Markets to be driven mostly by US news on Friday
Tomorrow, both currency and commodity markets will closely watch important fundamental data that is going to be released in the US, while other regions are expected to stay silent throughout the trading day. Among those fundamentals, US GDP for Q4 is estimated to be revised slightly upwards and personal consumption in the country has probably advanced 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in October-December time period. Meanwhile, Janet Yellen of the Fed and Mark Carney of the BoE are giving speeches on Friday, with both events considered as the ones with high importance level.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line which is currently located around 1,100. Therefore, towards the end of April the bullion is likely to approach the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,280 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems also inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
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For the first time since March 4, XAU/USD cross returned above the major 1,200 level as a result of seven straight daily increases. The bullion crossed two important resistance lines, at 1,195 (Jan-Mar down-trend) and 1,198 (weekly R1). From the point of view of technical analysis' tools, Gold is currently in a good position to extend its bullish tendency up to the 1,220 area where it is going to meet the next cluster of supply levels. However, daily technical indicators became more pessimistic and are now giving signals to sell the precious metal.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX opened positions remain positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened trades stays at 66% at the moment, a rise of around one and a half percentage points from yesterday. Gold's sentiment is currently the third most positive among major currency pairs at OANDA. In addition, SaxoGroup market participants are also positive with respect to the yellow metal, as there are 59% of bullish positions registered by 6:45 GMT on March 26.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Feb 26 and Mar 26 expect, on average, to see Gold trading just at 1,200 by the end of June. At the same time, 52% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 30% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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