- Opened positions on Gold remain positive (67% bullish / 33% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,198
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,183
- Upcoming events on March 26: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence (Apr), France GDP (Q4), US Unemployment Claims (Mar 13) and Markit Services PMI (Mar), UK Retail Sales (Feb), Japan National CPI (Feb), Unemployment Rate (Feb) and Retail Trade (Feb)
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Despite negative expectations, consumer prices in the world's most powerful economy were published better than initially projected in February of this year. Moreover, the annual CPI exited the negative territory it fell into last month, while showing a zero growth. Moreover, inflation was at 0.2% on month-to-month basis and in line with estimates.
Additionally, US manufacturing sector continued to expand strongly in March. A survey, published by Markit Economics, revealed a slight decrease in the PMI Index for the US manufacturing industry. The benchmark surged to 55.3 points this month from 55.1 points in February. A reading above 50 points is highlighting the rising activity.
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UK retail trade expected to improve after weak beginning of the year
Retail sales in the United Kingdom have probably advanced 0.4% in February on a monthly basis after a drop of 0.3% seen a month before. This data is awaited to be published tomorrow, along with many other statistical indicators that may have a considerable influence on the price of the yellow metal. Meanwhile, Japan is announcing very important data on Thursday, which will include the national consumer price index, jobless rate and retail sales for the month of February.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish channel on daily chart
On January 22, the level at 1,300 which acted as a strong supply for Gold forced the yellow metal to resume declining. Moreover, the bullion succeeded in consolidating below 1,200 during the first week of March, following a period of considerable losses. Taking into account strength of US fundamental factors and potential positive effects from the expanded asset purchases programme in the Eurozone, the long-term outlook for Gold is remaining fairly bearish. Even though some medium-term bullishness can be created by the 2014 low around 1,130, the precious metal is likely to develop below this level in course March-April time period. Moreover, in case of consolidation below this mark, a drop down to 2010 low at 1,044 will be broadly expected to take place towards the end of May.Daily chart
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XAU/USD has been approaching an important down-trend line during past five days, by registering constant daily gains. On Tuesday, Gold jumped additional five dollars per ounce to reach 1,195. At the same time, it seems that bullish momentum is waning. The closest resistance is located at 1,198 and is reinforced by Jan-Mar down-trend line and weekly R1. These lines are expected to send the bullion back to the south. However, a medium-term potential decline should be limited by demand around 1,180 (2013 low and 20-day SMA).
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX opened positions remain positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened trades stays at 64.1% at the moment, a plunge of more than two percentage points from yesterday. Gold's sentiment is currently the third most positive among major currency pairs at OANDA. In addition, SaxoGroup market participants are also positive with respect to the yellow metal, as there are 59% of bullish positions registered by 6:45 GMT on March 25.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Feb 25 and Mar 25 expect, on average, to see Gold trading just at 1,200 by the end of June. At the same time, 52% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 30% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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