- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are neutral again (50% bullish / 50% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1366
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.1291
- Upcoming events on February 19: France CPI (Jan), Eurozone Current Account (Dec) and Consumer Confidence (Feb), ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US Unemployment Claims (Feb 13) and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Feb)
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Investors in the Euro zone largest economy remained upbeat on Germany's near-term economic outlook in February, as the ZEW index reached the highest level in 12 months. The ZEW Centre for Economic Research reported that its index of German economic sentiment for the next six months jumped by 4.6 points to 53.0 this month from 48.4, recorded in January. Analysts had predicted the index would advance by 6.6 points to 55.0 in February.
ZEW said the quantitative easing programme announced by the ECB in January has brightened sentiment among financial markets experts. The ZEW Current Situation Index soared to 45.5 after 22.4 a month ago, suggesting that investors in Germany are becoming increasingly optimistic about the nation's economy.
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ECB publishes first meeting minutes on Thursday
Tomorrow, the European Central Bank is going to publish its first ever minutes of the meeting held on January 22. As expected, this report is going to show a distribution of votes between the Governing Council's members on expanded asset purchases programme. Moreover, the single currency area is revealing data on the current account for December and releasing the consumer confidence index for February. Therefore, it is assumed that these factors will keep the Euro volatile on February 19.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD set to weaken in the long-term
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair is remaining bearish. On January 22, the ECB has made a long-awaited decision to expand its asset purchases which will continue pushing the Euro to the downside. Moreover, the lowest point since the year 2003 around 1.1113 has already been hit by EUR/USD cross. Taking into account present monetary conditions and bearish outlook for the Euro, the pair has a chance to go below 1.10 towards the end of the first quarter of this year. Short-term bullish actions may take place, but their impact and size are not expected to be appropriate for the common currency to commence a stable recovery in the long-run. Moreover, some market participants suggest it may fall further and even trade towards the parity in course of this year.Daily chart
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Despite uncertainty over economic future of Greece inside the European monetary union, the single currency gained rather strong value against the US Dollar on Tuesday. EUR/USD gained confident bullish momentum and was pushed through the weekly pivot point above 1.1370. Moreover, the pair advanced even further and closed the trading day above 1.14. In the short-term, a slight correction is currently expected, taking into account a resistance in face of 20-day SMA at 1.1430.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Sentiment and commands return to Monday levels
On the other hand, SWFX pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price returned to the level seen two days ago, with neither bulls nor bears having any advantage in the morning on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to continue growing this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
geula4x, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the EUR/USD pair seems slightly bullish on the daily chart. Price has tested 1.1100 area and bounced higher, while a recent support has been established around 1.1260 level." He also added that the closest resistance is located 1.1473 and "Let's see if bulls can push higher and break 1.1473 resistance for a move towards 1.1600."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Jan 18 and Feb 18 expect, on average, to see the currency pair just below 1.13 by the end of May. Though the majority of participants, namely 57% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down even below 1.12 in ninety days, with 30% alone seeing it below 1.08. Alongside, 20% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.14 and 1.20 by the end of May of this year.
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