Community Forecasts for April 11 - 15: USD/GBP 1W Chart - Community Forecasts - Dukascopy Bank

Tue, 12 Apr 2016 12:26:04 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
 
© Dukascopy bank SA
During the previous week we can observe fluctuating in an overall bearish with a quite promising Monday when Sterling managed to pare most of Friday's losses and climbed over the 1.43 mark without major macro data. The construction PMI data, in turn, came out slightly better than expected, remaining steady at 54.2, after the construction sector saw a drop in activity in February to its lowest level since May last year. In the middle of the week the cable, was unable to preserve its gains, falling around 200 pips mostly due to the Brexit fears since investors continue positioning ahead of the UK's referendum on EU membership in June. During the next days, negative industrial data also dragged the pair down. The UK manufacturing production dropped to -1.1% from 0.5% in March, while the yearly print also decelerated to -1.8% from -0.3% previously. Moreover, industrial production slipped to -0.3% from 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year change also declining to -0.5% from 0.1%. Also, all four measures came out below market estimates and all four previous numbers were downwardly revised. Eventually on Friday, the pair closed the week on a calm note,  since Sterling is still vulnerable to a further decline, especially if US macro data improve during this week. 

This week the sentiment changed a little, as the same number of our weekly quiz participants expect the pair either to gain value or to decline. The average forecast for the end of the current week slightly went up, namely to 1.415, the level just above the weekly and daily S1 support lines. On Thursday, the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The US, in turn, is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on consumer inflation.

© Dukascopy bank SA

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