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The August 10-14 week has brought no surprises in terms of development of the USD/JPY currency pair, as it stayed largely unchanged during those days, despite some minor movements on Wednesday and Friday, when the pair dropped as low as down to weekly S1 at 124.01. A stable majority of Dukascopy respondents expected exactly such a development to take place last week, while the sentiment was changed to bearish mood.
The current week is forecasted to bring some important fundamental data, namely from the Japanese side. In the middle of the week Japan is to release data on the trade balance, while the next day, the Bank of Japan is going to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish the rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. This data may have a considerable impact on pair's perspectives. Participants of the latest quiz for Dukascopy Community Forecasts seem to wait for more negative data to be released, as now almost 63% of votes are set short on the USD/JPY currency pair, widely supporting the Yen. Speaking about expectations of Dukascopy Community members, Jignesh thinks that "The USDJPY seems to be consolidating for it's next big move and volatility is drying up in the pair. Without any major catalyst this week, the expectation here is continuation within it's range. As the pair is trading closer to the upper range, odds favor the downside", while iiivb believes "Accordingly for what has been mentioned constantly during my webinar and blog posts, the markets are getting out of the USD weakening trance after the CNY devaluation. There is now good evidence through volume and price fractals that the USD bullish move across the board is just about to get started again."
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