USD/JPY stands at Fibonacci retracement

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Monday, the USD/JPY has reached the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 108.44.

In theory, the pair should trade above this level until the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages approach the rate.

US Employment Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US Non-Farm Employment Change data, which came out better-than-expected of 266K compared with the forecast of 181K.

According to the official release: "Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment rose in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike."



Economic Calendar

This week there are a couple of events that could impact the rate.

On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI are scheduled to be published. Since July this event has caused moves from 11.4 to 28.4 pips.

On the same day, the US Federal Reserve would announce its interest rate at 19:00 GMT. The event has created moves from 12.6 to 52.1 pips.

The week is set to end with the US Retail Sales data sets on Friday at 13:30 GMT. A move from 8.7 to 25.4 pips can be expected.

Meanwhile, the week's scheduled event historical data tables have been published. Click on the link below to read the article.

USD/JPY short-term daily review

At the previous trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair tried to surpass the 108.60 level. During Monday morning, the pair was testing the support level formed by the Fibo 38.20% and the monthly S1 at 108.44.

If the given support holds, a reversal north could occur in the nearest future. In this case the exchange rate would have to surpass the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 108.70.

However, if the given support holds, it is likely that the US Dollar could depreciate against the Japanese Yen in the short term. A possible downside target is the weekly S1 at 108.13.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at the 108.43 level was strengthened by the 55-day simple moving average.

In the meantime, the 200-day SMA was pierced by the rate at the 108.90 level.

These factors indicate that the 55-day SMA could push the rate through the resistance of the 200-day SMA.

Daily chart



Traders short the USD/JPY

Since Friday, 67% of open USD/JPY position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders were to buy. In the 100-pip range 58% of pending orders were to buy and 42% were to sell.

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