USD/JPY drops sharply

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI caused a plummeting of the USD/JPY down to the 107.70 level.

On Wednesday, technical charts indicated that the rate would continue to decline.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management released the US ISM Manufacturing PMI survey data results, which came out worse-than-expected of 47.8 compared to the forecast of 50.4.

The Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Timothy R. Fiore commented: "Global trade remains the most significant issue, as demonstrated by the contraction in new export orders that began in July 2019. Overall, sentiment this month remains cautious regarding near-term growth."



Economic Calendar

On Wednesday, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be published at 12:15 GMT. This release has lost its significance during the last year, as it has caused moves from 5.2 to 19.0 pips since October 2018.

On Thursday, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is scheduled to be published. This release has caused rate adjustments on the USD/JPY from 8.0 to 27.3 pips since September 2018.

The week will end with the biggest event of the month in the US, the employment data publication, on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The release will consist of three data sets being published. The Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Average Hourly Earnings.

The Average Hourly Earnings is the top number to watch. It is closely followed in importance by the Non-Farm Employment change. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate can be ignored by financial traders.

The event has caused moves from 13.4 to 38.9 pips since May 2019.

All of the historical reaction data tables to all notable data releases have been published in a separate publication. To see the publication, click on the link below.

USD/JPY short-term daily review

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY declined below the resistance of all of the Dukascopy Analytics used hourly simple moving averages and the weekly and monthly pivot points. Meanwhile, the currency rate had no technical support as low as 107.24.

These facts combined indicate that in theory the rate should decline down to the weekly S1 at 107.24.

On the other hand, in the aftermath of the sharp drop that occurred on Tuesday, the currency rate should consolidate by fluctuating sideways.

Hourly Chart



The daily candle chart contradicts the hourly one. Namely, the rate has dropped down to the support of an ascending channel pattern. In theory, the rate should find support in this trend line and surge to once more test the resistance of the 108.40 mark.

Meanwhile, the rate had declined down below the 100-day simple moving average, which was located at the 107.77 level and could provide resistance to the currency rate.

Daily chart



Long sentiment declines

On Tuesday, 57% of open USD/JPY position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

By the middle of Wednesday's trading session, 54% of volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up orders were almost neutral. Namely, in the 100-pip range 54% of pending orders were set to buy and 46% were to sell.

Previously, 67% of orders were to sell.

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