USD/JPY breaks 100-hour SMA

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The USD/JPY did not follow the previous forecast, as it broke the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages and two pivot points. The following surge has been testing the 106.20 level.

At that level the 200-hour simple moving average was located throughout this week.

Economic Calendar



On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT the US Preliminary GDP is scheduled to be published. The event has caused moves on USD/JPY charts from 2.8 to 19.4 pips since February.

USD/JPY short-term daily review

On Thursday morning, the USD/JPY had three possible scenarios.

The rate could trade sideways between the support levels just above 105.80 and the 200-hour SMA at 106.15.

If the rate breaks the resistance of the 200-hour SMA, it would surge up to the pivot point that is located at the 106.39 level.

A decline below the support level cluster at 105.80 could result in a sharp decline to the 105.00 level. That is due to the fact that below the cluster there are no technical support levels as low as 104.90.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the pair trades below the daily simple moving averages. It is an indicator of the rate being oversold.

In the meantime, note that during the most recent fundamental drop the rate pierced the lower trend line of a large scale descending channel pattern. The event hints that fundamental event are capable of breaking the pattern.

Daily chart



Traders remain long

On Thursday, 66% of USD/JPY open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up orders were bearish. Namely, in the 100-pip range 59% of pending orders were set to sell and 41% were to buy.

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