GBP/USD posts first weekly gains in more than a month

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
{ATTACHMENT} The Sterling was able to post the first weekly gain in six weeks by appreciating 0.06% on the daily basis. Last week was relatively filled with important data; however, the impact was subdued as the Thanksgiving Day was celebrated in the US.

One of the biggest worries for the UK has been the housing sector and on Friday nationwide house price index was released. Britain's house price inflation cooled to the lowest level in 11 months in November, as the property market continues to lose steam, the UK's second largest mortgage lender Nationwide reported. House prices climbed 8.5% in the year to November, the smallest rise since December 2013 and compared with near 10-year high of 11.8% recorded in June. A separate report showed UK consumer confidence remained intact as Britons' readiness to make big purchases compensated deterioration in their outlook for the economy. Gfk consumer confidence was at –2, while the economic index came in at the weakest level since 2013.

Activity in the British housing market and price gains have been slowing since the middle of the year, partly due to tougher mortgage rules. Earlier this month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said its index of new-buyer demand has declined to the lowest level in six years. UK's economy is projected to be the fastest growing among the G7 nations this year, though wage growth still remains weak, making houses hard to afford for many British workers.








Manufacturing data from both - US and UK, highly anticipated

This week once again is full with important data and most likely the volatility levels will be much higher compared to the previous week due to the fact that there will be no bank holidays. Today UK and US manufacturing PMIs will be released, these data are considered to be very important since purchasing managers hold probably the most relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
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GBP/USD tests upper trend-line

At the moment GBP/USD is testing the strength of the down-trend that started to take its shape at July, when the pair reached a six-year high at 1.7193. The pair's trading range is becoming narrower and that could potentially provoke a break-out. Since the Pound has reached this year's low just recently, we expect a bullish break-out to be the case; however, there still is a downisde risk of the pair falling lower, if it fails to breach the monthly S1 at 1.5833.

Daily chart
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After posting the first weekly gains in more than a month, the Pound seems unlikely to hold its bullishness. The GBP/USD pair has already reached the lowest level this year in the very begining of the week, thus the Sterling is eager to find a support level. We expect that the weekly S1 at 1.5567 could be the one to hold the pair afloat for now; however, down-side risks remain a possibilit if the level fails to hold back the bears.

Hourly chart
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SWFX traders slightly bullish on GBP/USD

There is a conviction in the market that the Pound is undervalued against the US currency, being that as many as 55% of open positions are currently long. As for the orders, the amounts of buy (29%) and sell (71%) are far from equal.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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