- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish
- 51% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: US (Core) Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index
A surge is expected to follow if the 200-hour SMA at 1.17 is breached.
The European single currency weakened against the Greenback, following the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data release on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair lost eight pips in 5 minute range candle, or 0.07%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1694 area.
The Institute for Supply Management released the monthly US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data that came out better-than-expected of 59.1, compare to forecasted 58.3.
The news have created a flat down movement of the EUR/USD currency pair, since the data come out better-than-expected. The slight impact shows the absences of the big players in the markets thereat.
US Retail Sales
The only significant fundamental event today is the US Retail and Core Retail Sales at 1230GMT. Analysts forecast an increase of 0.4% for both readings. This data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Analysts Team.
Meanwhile, tune in for the Weekly Calendar Review at 1200GMT.
EUR/USD limited by SMAs
The previous trading week brought weakness to the EUR/USD exchange rate, with the pair losing 102 pips lower from its weekly high of 1.1730. In terms of today, the it was stranded between the strong bounds of the 200– and 55-hour SMAs.It seems that the pair might be reluctant to push above the former at 1.17, as this level is likewise strengthened by the 100-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs and the weekly PP. Thus, it is more likely that the rate continues to edge lower towards the weekly S1 at 1.16 during the first part of the day, at least. This bearish sentiment should nevertheless change within the following days, thus giving bulls the opportunity to retake their lost positions.
In case the aforementioned resistance is breached today, the Euro should target 1.1760.
Hourly Chart
The massive decline which started mid-April was stopped by the bottom boundary of the senior channel a strong support level near 1.1550.
The general tendency in the long term should be northwards. In terms of resistance, it is likely that the 55-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 provide a strong barrier in July.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 59% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 53% bullish and the US Dollar is 60% bearish.
Traders remain firmly long, as they expect the Euro to gain even more against the US Dollar in the near future.
OANDA traders are gradually becoming more bullish with 55% of open positions being long on Friday. Saxo Bank traders are likewise bullish, as 52% of open positions were long early on Monday (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility