- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are at equilibrium
- 57% of traders are bearish on the pair (-1%)
- Upside potential up to post-Brexit high of 1.4313
- Upcoming data releases: US Core Retail Sales m/m, US Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, FOMC Member Bostic to speak
The 55-hour SMA is likely to continue guiding the Sterling.
The British Pound weakened against the Greenback, following the UK Manufacturing Production data on Wednesday. The GBP/USD currency lost 10 pips, or 0.07%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.4190 area.
The Office for National Statistics revealed lower-than-expected data in Manufacturing Production in February. On month-to-month basis factory production decreased by 0.2%, compared to a growth of 0.1% in the prior month. Surprisingly, but Britain's construction and manufacturing sectors output showed downturn, being the main cause for this decrease. The Britain's economic activity in Q1 showed its growth pace to slow down a little bit, based on the February's activity data.
US Retail Sales
The US Census Bureau is set to release Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales for March at 1230GMT. The core reading is expected to increase by 0.2%, while the value of sales at the retail level should see a more solid growth of 0.4%. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is published at the same time.
The President of the Federal Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic is due to speak about the economy at the Shoals Chamber of Commerce at 1715GMT.
GBP/USD targets post-Brexit high
The Sterling remained steady against the US Dollar on Friday except for a slight 54- pip surge early in the day. These gains, however, were already erased within the following hours.On Monday, the pair was still lingering slightly below its post-Brexit high of 1.4213. Thus, it is likely that the pair tests this mark or edges even higher towards the weekly R1 or R2 at 1.4233 and 1.4424, respectively, in this session, as the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs could guide the Pound and limit a fall below 1.42. In addition, another bullish signal is provided by the dashed trend-line which was breached on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a fall below the 1.42 mark should continue until the 200-hour SMA and the weekly S1 near 1.4150 are reached. In terms of fundamentals, the US is to release its Retail Sales at 1230GMT.
Hourly chart
Following a test of the 55-hour SMA early in April, the Sterling accelerates substantially against the US Dollar. Technical indicators demonstrate that there is still some slight upside potential. Thus, the pair might still edge higher during the following session, setting the 1.44 area as a possible near-term target.
In case bears prevail this week, the pair should be pushed towards a trend-line at 1.41.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment is once again bearish, as 57% of open positions are short in this session (-1%). In addition, 53% of pending orders are to sell the Sterling.
OANDA traders remain bearish on the Pound with 62% of their open positions being short (+1%). Saxo Bank is likewise bearish with 65% of its clients holding short positions (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility