- Traders are bearish with 52% short positions (-2%)
- 58% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upside potential up to 1.2360
- Important for today: US Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Bostic to speak
The common European currency remains pressured from above by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs near 1.23.
The Eurozone's single currency weakened against the Greenback, following the US ADP non-farm employment data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost only five pips, or 0.04%, to continue fluctuating and going back up to the 1.2287 level.
The Automatic Data Processing, Inc. revealed better-than-expected data in the US non-farm employment data in March. Employment in private sector increased by 241,000, continuing the momentum in the Q1 2018, adding more jobs per month than on average in 2017, said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. He added that the manufacturing sector increased in its strongest pace during the last three years.
Fundamentals of intermediate importance
No significant fundamentals are scheduled for Thursday's trading session. The Eurostat will publish the Euro zone's monthly PPI and Retail Sales for February at 0900GMT. However, these data releases tend to have muted effect, as Germany and France which constitute for about a half of the region's economy, have already published their readings beforehand.
The US Department of Labour will publish the weekly Unemployment Claims at 1230GMT. In addition, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic is due to speak about financial literacy at the University of South Florida at 1700GMT.
EUR/USD fails to gain momentum
The Euro continues to move in a ranging motion against the US Dollar for the fifth consecutive session. The pair was pushed slightly lower mid-Tuesday; nevertheless, the lack of distinctive movement still continues to dominate the market.Despite attempts to push higher during the previous session, bulls failed to overcome the strong resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the senior channel line circa 1.2310.
Meanwhile, the pair breached a junior pattern that could be regarded as a bullish signal. From a technical point of view, this should send the pair past 1.23 and towards the 200-hour SMA. However, the Euro has struggled to capitalise on the Dollar's weakness, and the same situation is likely to continue today.
In terms of downside potential, the rate should not fall below the 1.2240 mark.
Hourly Chart
EUR/JPY has been trading sideways since early March, as the strong support of the 55-day SMA has not allowed the pair to move below the 1.22 mark.
The Euro might still push slightly higher towards the weekly R1 and the upper boundary of the junior channel this week. However, the general direction should nevertheless remain south to eventually breach the senior channel and test the 100-day SMA and the monthly S1 at 1.2130.
Daily Chart
Bears continue to prevail
The bearish market sentiment for the EUR/USD exchange has decreased by two percentage points, thus currently being 52% bearish.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bearish and the US Dollar is 53% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders remains at 56% today. Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 58% of open positions being short (unchanged from Wednesday).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility