- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish (-2%)
- 62% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Strong southern barrier circa 1.2310
- Upcoming events: German Buba President Weidmann to speak, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Powell to testify, US CB Consumer Confidence
The European single currency slightly increased against the Greenback, following the final consumer price index report released last Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair appreciated nine base points, or 0.08%, to hit the 1.2317 mark.
Euro zone's consumer inflation continued its run in line with estimates, the final Eurostat report showed on Friday. The EZ consumer price index growth confirmed the preliminary gain of 1.3% in January, following a 1.4% increase in the prior month. However, on a month-to-month basis, the CPI decreased by 0.9% in the reported month, following an increase of 0.4% in December. January's inflation rate was driven by services sector, food, alcohol & tobacco, energy and non-energy industrial goods.
Powell in focus
During the morning session, the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank Jens Weidmann is to discuss the bank's Annual Report at 1000GMT.
The main focus in this session is put on the United States. The newly-elected Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to testify on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee at 1500GMT (the text of the testimony will be released at 1330GMT). In addition, the US Census Bureau is going to publish the Core Durable Goods Orders during January, while, the Conference Board Inc is set to release its Consumer Confidence for this month at 1330GMT and 1500GMT.
EUR/USD steady prior to fundamentals
The common European currency was fluctuating around the 55– and 100-hour SMAs during the previous session. However, the general price movement has not changed since Monday morning.As apparent on the chart, the price is still tended slightly upwards, as it is moving along the bottom line of a four-month channel up for the third consecutive session. Technical indicators flash mixed signals for today, suggesting that the current steady movement might prevail within the following hours, as well.
It is likely that volatility is introduced in the second part of the day is due to three sets of significant fundamentals published by the US during this time. A strong support could be provided by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 1.23, while gains should be capped near the weekly R1 at 1.2402.
Hourly Chart
It seems that the Euro might finally be ready to abandon its high position against the Greenback and move towards the bottom boundary of the prevailing 1,5-year channel, the 55-day SMA and the 50.0% Fibo retracement circa 1.22 during the following weeks.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of the EUR/USD exchange rate is 57% in this session (-2%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 63% bearish and the US Dollar is 58% bullish.
OANDA traders remain bearish in this session, as 54% of open positions, compared to 52% on the previous session. The bearish sentiment of Saxo Bank clients stands at 59% short positions (+2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility