- SWFX traders remain bearish with 55% of open positions being short
- 60% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price opened the day's trading at 1,254.58
- Upcoming Events: EU Final CPI; ECOFIN Meetings; US Building Permits; US Housing Starts; Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The bullion has reached the target zone set by Dukascopy analysts on Thursday, and it is expected that the commodity price will continue to decline. The reason for that is the fact that the metal has reached a significant support cluster and begun to pierce the last support level above the 1,250 mark.
As markets expected, the Federal Reserve raised its interest rates at the end of its meeting on Wednesday, adding that it would start cutting its Treasury bonds and other securities this year amid solid economic growth and strong employment trends. Despite the release of weak retail sales and inflation figures earlier in the day, policymakers voted to lift its benchmark lending rate to a target range of 1.00-1.25% and predicted one more rate hike this year.
US Building Permits and Housing Starts in focus
In the second half of the day, as the working hours begin in the US, data will be coming in from that side of the Atlantic. At 12:30 GMT the US Building Permits and Housing Starts release will take place. This data publication will be covered by the Dukascopy research team live. To access the webinar just click on the popup on your JForex platform or check out the webinar schedule on the Dukascopy website. Later on, at 14:00 GMT, the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published. However, this data release is unlikely to impact the markets.
Gold reaches targeted support
The yellow metal's price moved in the last 24 hours, as it was forecasted on Thursday morning. The commodity price has reached the combined support of the weekly S1 and the monthly PP. The weekly first support, which is located at the 1,255.79 level, has clearly been passed. However, the monthly PP at the 1,253.00 mark is holding its ground. As it can be observed on the chart, the monthly level of significance has held off a fall of the bullion for nearly 20 hours. Although, if the monthly pivot point gets passed, the commodity price is most likely going to fall to the next level of significance, as the second weekly support is located at the 1,244.60 mark. Meanwhile, while trying to identify a pattern, only slight hints of a descending short term channel can be noticed.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the long term ascending channel patterns lower trend line is still far from being reached. However, market participants should give more attention to the 100-day SMA at the 1,246.24 mark. It stands in the way of the pair before it could reach the lower trend line of the long term pattern.Daily Chart
SWFX traders contradict others
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 55% of open positions are short on Friday. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders remain slightly bullish, as open positions are 56.87% long on Friday, compared to 54.69% yesterday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have become bearish, as 52.34% of open positions are short
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being slightly near 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,310 in the middle of September. Generally, 37% (-5%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, an astonishing 26% (-1%) are voting for tight range between the 1,300 and 1,350 marks.