EUR/USD saw significant increase in volatility closing above 1.17200 in the previous week.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Forward-looking implied volatility for this may depend on both fundamental data from the U.S. and the results of auctions for shorter-term U.S. Treasury bills.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
For EUR/USD, the current market structure shows a broadly bullish trend on the hourly timeframe, characterized by higher highs and higher lows since the beginning of the observed period, although price is now entering a consolidation phase after failing to sustain a breakout above 1.17250. The moving averages still support a bullish bias, with the SMA 200 at 1.16063 sloping upward well below price, indicating strong long-term momentum, the SMA 100 at 1.16635 acting as secondary dynamic support, and the SMA 50 around 1.16850 currently being tested, where its flattening suggests that short-term momentum is slowing and the market is searching for a new catalyst.Looking ahead, a bullish continuation scenario would require price to hold above the SMA 50 and break through 1.17100, opening the path to retest 1.17250 and potentially extend toward 1.17800, whereas a bearish correction scenario would emerge if price falls below the SMA 50, likely leading to a move toward the SMA 100 and the 1.16500 support zone.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
Price is trading around 1.16910, positioned directly within a tight cluster of the 50, 100, and 200 simple moving averages, The moving averages themselves are flattening and converging, indicating that the prior downtrend has lost momentum while a new trend has yet to fully establish itself; price holding slightly above the 200-day average suggests a tentative risk-on tone, while the 50 and 100 SMAs are sitting just below current price action, forming a composite support zone that could strengthen further if a bullish golden cross develops.Currently the structure is clearly defined, with immediate resistance at 1.17693 acting as the first key barrier, followed by intermediate resistance at 1.18300 and major resistance at 1.19000 as the broader upside target, while on the downside, 1.16000 serves as an important psychological support level and 1.14550 remains the definitive floor that previously held twice.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are going long
The sentiment data for EUR/USD reveals a bullish positioning among retail traders, with 60.96% holding long positions compared to 39.04% holding short positions.