Volatility may rise in metals this week as market participants.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
XAU/USD is currently in a clear bearish trend, with price forming lower highs and lower lows after a strong drop from around 5250. The sharp decline slowed after the sell-off on the 13th, and the price is now consolidating around 4992, suggesting a temporary pause rather than a confirmed reversal. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, which confirms that bearish momentum is still dominant. The histogram bars have become smaller, indicating that the strong downward momentum has weakened slightly, but there is still no strong signal of a bullish reversal. A bullish MACD crossover would only suggest a short-term recovery.
If the price falls below the recent low near 4970, the decline could continue toward 4945, and possibly 4890. On the upside, a temporary bounce could push the price toward 5050, where sellers may re-enter the market. Overall, the short-term bias remains bearish unless price breaks above the 5050 resistance area.
XAU/USD daily charts review
Daily chart, points to a bearish phase after the recent sharp drop from the highs near 5250.00. The strong downward movement shows that selling pressure has dominated the market, and the price is now stabilizing slightly after the rapid decline.At the moment, the market is pausing around the 4990 area, which suggests temporary consolidation after the sell-off rather than a confirmed reversal. Momentum indicators still reflect negative pressure, meaning the larger trend remains to the downside unless buyers regain control.If the price breaks below the nearby support around 4945, the decline could extend toward 4890.00. For a recovery scenario, gold would need to move back above 5050, which would be the first sign of a short-term rebound. Until that happens, the overall outlook on the daily timeframe remains bearish, with rallies likely acting as temporary corrections within the downtrend.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
Sentiment data for XAU/USD shows that about 71% of traders are long while only around 29% are short, indicating that most retail traders expect gold to rise. However, sentiment is often interpreted using a contrarian approach, meaning when the majority is positioned long, the market frequently continues moving downward.