Increased overall volatility saw EUR/USD moving down and closing below 1.14180.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Fundamental data release may enhance overall volatility, only in a scenario if data released deviate from the consensus forecasts.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
EUR/USD 1-hour chart shows a bearish trend, with price moving inside a descending channel and making lower highs and lower lows. The pair is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 moving averages, confirming strong downside momentum. Price is currently near the 1.1400 support level, which is an important psychological area.If the price stays below about 1.1450, the bearish pressure is likely to continue and the market could test 1.1400. A break below that level may push the pair toward 1.1350 and possibly 1.1300.For a bullish shift, the price would need to move back above the 50-period moving average and break the upper boundary of the channel, which could open the way toward 1.1510.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the EUR/USD daily chart, the broader trend shows a strong bearish shift after the pair broke below the 200-day moving average, which often signals that the long-term trend has turned downward. The recent sell-off paused around 1.1424, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and currently acting as a key support area. If the price closes below 1.1424, the next downside targets are around 1.1276 and possibly 1.1200, indicating further continuation of the bearish move. The moving averages are also pointing down, and if the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, it would create a "death cross," reinforcing the long-term bearish outlook.For a meaningful bullish recovery, the pair would need to move back above 1.1571, which was previously strong support and is now acting as resistance. Until that level is reclaimed, any upward movement is likely to be temporary within the overall downtrend.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are going short
Sentiment shows 63% of traders are long and only 37% are short, and the number of long positions has recently increased. Since sentiment is often used as a contrarian indicator, this imbalance suggests the market may continue moving downward, because heavy retail buying during a downtrend often provides liquidity for larger sellers.