Further volatility pushed FX down to 152.600 range at close .
Continuing previous weeks trend, moderate volatility in the FX market may be expected as the primary scenario.
USD/JPY hourly chart analysis
USD/JPY is in a transition phase after a strong bearish correction. The pair is trading below the 100 and 200 SMAs, which keeps the medium-term bias bearish. The 50 SMA has crossed below both and is now flattening near the current price around 153.26, showing that downside momentum has slowed but not fully reversed. After falling from 157.64, price is now moving sideways between 152.00 and 154.20. The key level on the upside is 154.20. If price cannot break and hold above it, the recent bounce may fail. On the downside, 152.00 is important support, and a daily close below it could open the door toward 150.00. Price is currently hovering near 152.82, where buyers have shown some interest, as seen from repeated rejections of lower levels.Hourly Chart
USD/JPY daily candle chart analysis
USD/JPY has moved from a strong uptrend into a sideways phase with a slight bearish bias. Price has fallen below the 50-day SMA at 156.07 and is struggling around the 100-day SMA near 154.60, showing that bullish momentum has weakened. The 200-day SMA near 150.50 is still holding, so the long-term trend remains bullish for now. Resistance stands at 154.20 and then 157.64, while support is at 152.82 and more importantly at 150.00. The market is forming lower highs and showing higher volatility, which suggests a correction. A break below 152.00 could push price toward 150.00, while a move back above 154.60 would signal buyers are regaining strength.
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Traders sentiment
USD/JPY is strongly bearish. About 68% of traders are short, while only around 32% are long, showing a clear bias toward further downside. This heavy short positioning can support the bearish trend, but it also increases the risk of a short squeeze if price starts to move higher unexpectedly.