EUR/USD outlook

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

FX recovered towards 1.19150 before moving back and closing close to 1.18680.


Economic Calendar Analysis


Volatility levels may be considered low for the first half of the week, Friday may bring higher levels of volatility considering fundamental data releases.

EUR/USD hourly chart analysis

EUR/USD pair is currently in a consolidation phase, with price action tightly trapped between key moving averages, signaling a potential breakout. The price is hovering around 1.18652, which places it in a neutral, sideways trend. The market sentiment is indecisive as the price is near the where several technical indicators meet.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

EUR/USD has recently moved from a consolidation phase into a more bullish and volatile structure. The price is trading above the 50, 100, and 200 SMAs, which are all sloping upward, indicating strong short- and long-term bullish momentum. The 50 SMA near 1.1736 is acting as dynamic support, while the price remains well above the 200 SMA at 1.1622, confirming the primary uptrend. Key levels to watch include immediate resistance at 1.1920, a pivot around 1.1830 where buyers are stepping in, and major support at 1.1600, which aligns with historical confluence and the SMA 100. Smaller candle bodies indicate short-term consolidation and indecision before the next major move.



Daily chart




Traders are going short






EUR/USD sentiment shows a slight majority of short positions (57.29%), yet the recent 14.58% decrease in longs indicates a move toward a more balanced, neutral market stance. With the exchange rate stabilizing around 1.1863, the lack of an extreme directional bias suggests the pair may enter a period of consolidation or sideways trading.

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