Overall, a decrease in gold volatility may be considered the primary scenario; however, activity in the Japanese bond market could increase overall market volatility this week.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Gold is moving sideways but with a slight bullish tone after last month's volatility. Price is sitting near the long-term SMA 180, which is flat and signals a neutral bigger picture, while the short-term SMA 30 is rising and holding below price, showing short-term strength. Price is approaching resistance near 5090.00, and a clean hold above that level could open a move toward the 5300.00, 5500.00 zone.
On the downside, support sits around 4900.00, with a deeper level near 4689.0. Drop back below the SMA 30 would suggest the recent bounce is losing strength and could lead to a retest of those lower supports.
XAU/USD daily charts review
Gold is consolidating on the daily chart after a sharp pullback from the 5400.00 high, where strong rejection signaled weakening bullish momentum. MACD supports this bias with a bearish crossover, an expanding negative histogram, and prior divergence at the highs, all pointing to fading momentum and a cautious, downside-leaning outlook.Further inflationary pressures and elevated levels of uncertainty may provide bullish bias of the precious metals price in the near term.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
74.59% of traders are holding long positions on XAU/USD, resulting in a strong bullish net sentiment of +49.18%, with only 25.41% of traders in short positions.