Elevated volatility levels may occur throughout the week; however initial probability may be considered low.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
Gold is consolidating around 4070.00 after dropping from 4236.00, trading in a tight range between 3953.00 support, with a psychological floor at 4000.00, and 4150.00 resistance. RSI is neutral at 50.56, reflecting sideways momentum. The market balances bearish pressure from the Fed and rising US interest rates with bullish safe-haven demand and central bank buying. Key US economic data this week will likely trigger a breakout. Above 4150.00 targets 4236.00, below 3953.00 signals a deeper correction. Gold is coiling into a tighter range awaiting a clear fundamental catalyst.
XAU/USD daily charts review
Gold XAU/USD is in a major consolidation phase after a strong rally and rejection from its recent high near 4380.00. The price is currently around 4071.74, in the middle of the range between major support at 3880.00–3853.00 and resistance at 4235.00–4400.00. RSI is 56.69, showing a slightly positive bias but overall neutral momentum.Daily Candle Chart
Traders going long
Gold shows a bullish bias supported by the majority of traders holding long positions at around 66%. However, this is balanced by a significant 33.73% of short traders, suggesting some caution. The technical setup likely reflects ongoing consolidation or a potential continuation of the uptrend if buying pressure sustains.