GBP/USD outlook

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

GBP/USD saw decrease in price in the last month, closing below 1.30931.

Economic Calendar


Volatility may persist throughout the week, considering fundamental data releases from this week.

GBP/USD hourly chart analysis

GBP/USD pair is trying to recover after a strong drop, but the overall trend is still bearish. The price is currently moving up slightly, testing a small resistance area around 1.3100–1.3110. If it breaks and holds above 1.3110, the upward move could continue. The bigger resistance level is at 1.3140, which used to be strong support before the breakdown. The SMA 100 and SMA 200 are also near this level and are both sloping downward, showing that the long-term trend is still negative and making this area difficult to break. On the support side, the price has immediate support near 1.3080, where the SMA 50 is rising and helping hold the price up. If the pair falls below this level, the current bounce may be ending. The major support is at 1.3040, which is the recent low. A drop below 1.3040 would likely confirm that the downtrend is continuing.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily candle chart analysis

The price is now testing a small resistance area around 1.3100–1.3110. If it goes above 1.3110 and stays there, the price could continue rising toward the bigger resistance at 1.3140, where the longer-term moving averages are also sitting. This makes 1.3140 a very hard level to break. On the downside, the first support is at 1.3080, helped by the rising 50-period moving average.

Daily chart


Traders are long
Most traders are long on GBP/USD (about 75%), which can be a warning sign because heavy long sentiment often appears during a broader downtrend. If the pair fails to break above resistance, this crowded long positioning increases the risk of a move lower.




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