GBP/USD outlook

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

GBP closed flat comparing against previous week closing above 1.31600.

Economic Calendar


Elevated levels of volatility may be observed if fundamental data from United Kingdom and United States provide any deviation from estimates.

GBP/USD hourly chart analysis

The price has achieved several key bullish milestones. Most importantly, it is now trading above all three Simple Moving Averages (50, 100, and 200), indicating that momentum is positive across the short, medium, and long term for this timeframe. The break above the 200-period SMA (red line) is particularly significant, as this line was acting as a strong dynamic resistance for a long time. As long as the price continues to hold above this 1.3140 support zone, the path of least resistance is up. The next logical target for buyers is the 1.3200 level, followed by the 1.3296 resistance.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily candle chart analysis

Technical analysis shows a powerful bearish breakdown. The live price is 1.31338, which confirms the chart's data. After trading in a wide range, the price has decisively broken below two critical long-term support levels: the major horizontal support at 1.31700 and, more importantly, the 200-day Simple Moving Average. This break below the 200-SMA is a very strong signal that the long-term trend is turning negative. Compounding this, the 50-day SMA is crossing below the 100-day SMA, a classic bearish signal. The broken support levels at 1.31700 and the 200-SMA will now act as a heavy "ceiling" or resistance. The next major support level visible on the chart is significantly lower at 1.28000.

Daily chart


Traders are long
GBP/USD is showing an extremely crowded trade. A large majority of traders, 73.30%, are holding long positions, while only 26.70% are short.




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